My early memories of the Oscars in the 80s and early 90s were sweeping epic movies winning Best Picture and a slew of awards. From 1982 to 1993, half of the Best Picture winners won seven or more awards. This included period pieces like Ghandi, Amadeus, Out of Africa, The Last Emperor, and Schindler’s List. It also seemed like whichever movie had the most nominations swept the awards and the ceremonies were pretty boring once one movie started an avalanche of wins. The last ten years have seen a much different trend. The last Best Picture winner with more than 5 awards was The Hurt Locker in 2009. There’s only been one film with 7 awards (Gravity in 2013) in that timeframe and it didn’t win Best Picture.
The other trend in the last five years has been the changing demographic in the Academy. Criticized for the lack of diversity in nominations, the Academy committed to improving the race and gender diversity in its membership. One could argue that there has been a little progress in the last few years, but not nearly enough, based on the slate of nominees this year. It’s hard to tell the true impact of the Academy’s commitment, but could this demographic change be driving a shift from “big winners” to “spread the wealth”? Are the days of a mega winner like Titanic (11 wins in 1997) and Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (11 wins in 2003) long gone? Will the expected content explosion create a stronger slate of films in contention each year? (Let’s hope so.) Are we seeing a migration from “Old Academy” to “New Academy”? Interesting trends to watch.
The Nominees
There weren’t a lot of surprises when the nominations were announced, but there were a few that I wish were different, which I will note below. The leading films nominated were Joker with 11, and The Irishman, 1917, and Once Upon a Time…In Hollywood with 10 each. Also, there will be a lot of media coverage heading into the ceremony on Feb 9th and with it, a lot of predictions. Most of the categories have strong frontrunners, so in addition to who I think will likely win, I’m also going to provide a potential surprise winner. And for full disclosure – this is not a professional gambling advice blog, so wager at your own risk. Here goes:
Best Supporting Actor
- Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (6th nomination, 2 previous wins for Philadelphia and Forrest Gump)
- Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes (5th nomination, previous win for Silence of the Lambs)
- Al Pacino – The Irishman (9th nomination, previous win for Scent of a Woman)
- Joe Pesci – The Irishman (3rd nomination, previous win for Goodfellas)
- Brad Pitt – Once Upon A Time…In Hollywood (4th nomination, no previous wins)
This category is LOADED – five major A-listers with 22 previous nominations and five previous wins. Pitt is the only one without a win (although he does have an Oscar as a producer for 2013 Best Picture 12 Years a Slave). If I had to swap in a different nominee, I would probably pick Song Kang-ho from Parasite instead of Hopkins in The Two Popes. Song’s performance as the father of the Kim family was outstanding, as he balanced wearing a brave face for his family while clearly feeling shamed when dealing with the Park family. While it was nice for Parasite to get some recognition (six total nominations), I would have liked to see an acting nod, especially after the film won the Best Ensemble Cast Award at the Screen Actor Guild Awards.
Pitt has been the frontrunner this award season, including a win at the Golden Globes. So, he’ll likely win (and I really hope he does), but if I had to pick a potential surprise, it would be Pesci. He basically came out of retirement to do The Irishmen and his performance was excellent.
Best Supporting Actress
- Kathy Bates – Richard Jewell (4th nomination, previous win for Misery)
- Laura Dern – Marriage Story (3rd nomination, no previous wins)
- Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit (1st nomination, also nominated for Leading Actress for Marriage Story)
- Florence Pugh – Little Women (1st nomination)
- Margot Robbie – Bombshell (2nd nomination, no previous wins)
One of the big headlines when the nominations were announced was the absence of Jennifer Lopez from this category for her role in Hustlers. Following a Golden Globe nomination and critical acclaim for her performance, she seemed like a shoe-in. I would agree that she probably should have been nominated and I would swap her in for Scarlett Johansson. She was very good in Jojo Rabbit, but Lopez had a broader range in Hustlers, from friend to mentor to criminal mastermind. Higher degree of difficulty should be rewarded.
Dern has been running away with this award this season and is the likely winner, but if I had to pick a surprise, it would be Robbie. She was excellent in Bombshell (and Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood, which could have earned her a nomination) and is clearly a star on the rise. How about the year for Florence Pugh – a great lead performance in Midsommar and an Oscar nomination for Little Women (which I did finally see and really liked – more on that to come).
Best Leading Actor
- Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory (1st nomination)
- Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood (6th nomination, previous win for The Revenant)
- Adam Driver – Marriage Story (2nd nomination, no previous wins)
- Joaquin Phoenix – Joker (4th nomination, no previous wins)
- Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes (1st nomination)
This was a very competitive category this year. Notable actors who weren’t nominated include Christian Bale (Ford v Ferrari), Eddie Murphy (Dolemite is My Name), Taron Egerton (Rocketman), Daniel Craig (Knives Out), George MacKay (1917), and Mark Ruffalo (Dark Waters). But to me, the biggest snub was Adam Sandler in Uncut Gems. If you read my review of that film, you know how much I admired his performance. I would swap him in for Pryce in The Two Popes. His performance was good and overall the movie was OK – I just didn’t agree with the strong reviews that the movie received. It felt like the nominations for both Pryce and Hopkins were from the “Old Academy.” I’m out on the Old Academy – time to shift to the New Academy.
From the time Joker hit the theaters in October, this has been Joaquin Phoenix’s award to lose. His performance was transformational – the way he immersed himself into the character of Arthur Fleck leaves you feeling so uncomfortable seeing him struggle with the demons that plague him. I thought Phoenix was outstanding, and the movie was good – more on that below. He’ll likely win, but if I had to pick a surprise, I’d choose Driver. He was so good in Marriage Story, playing a wide range of emotions, including a moving singing scene. What a year he had – in addition to Marriage Story, he was the lead in the fabulous CIA torture story The Report, and completed his journey as Kylo Ren in the last of the Star Wars trilogy, The Rise of Skywalker. This may not be his year, but his Oscar will come someday.
Best Leading Actress
- Cynthia Erivo – Harriet (1st nomination, also nominated for Best Original Song for Harriet)
- Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story (1st nomination, also nominated for Supporting Actress for Jojo Rabbit)
- Saoirse Ronan – Little Women (4th nomination, no previous wins)
- Charlize Theron – Bombshell (3rd nomination, previous win for Monster)
- Renee Zellweger – Judy (4th nomination, previous win for Cold Mountain)
The only award that seemed locked up even before Joaquin Phoenix’s for Joker was Renee Zellweger’s performance as Judy Garland in the biopic Judy. This has seemingly been wrapped up since the movie debuted in the summer. She is excellent in the movie, portraying Garland in her later years when she was struggling for money while trying to care for her small children. It’s sad to watch Garland at this stage of her life and particularly moving when she is struggling with her alcoholism. Zellweger does all of her own singing in the movie (including an emotional version of Over the Rainbow) and even sounds like Garland when she speaks. I thought the film was just ok – overall, a great performance in a good movie.
If I had to pick a surprise winner? Maybe Saoirse Ronan in Little Women. You know what’s impressive? How about being 25 and already having four Oscar nominations? That’s Ronan, who is on an incredible run the last several years. Like Adam Driver, it’s only a matter of time before she gets her Oscar.
Best Director
- Bong Joon-Ho – Parasite (1st nomination)
- Sam Mendes – 1917 (2nd nomination, previous win for American Beauty)
- Todd Phillips – Joker (1st nomination)
- Martin Scorsese – The Irishman (9th nomination, previous win for The Departed)
- Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood (3rd nomination, no previous wins)
Usually, when the Academy Award nominations are announced, there is a comparison between the nominees for Best Picture and Best Director to see if there are any differences in the nominated films. Best Picture is awarded to the Producers of the film, but there is usually a strong correlation between the two categories. This became further complicated when the Academy expanded the Best Picture category in 2009 to include up to ten nominees, while the Best Director category is still capped at five.
This year there are four films nominated for Best Picture, but not Best Director – Ford v Ferrari, Jojo Rabbit, Marriage Story, and Little Women. Of the directors of those four films, the one that has the strongest argument against being left out is Greta Gerwig, the director of Little Women. When I look at the Best Director nominees, you can make a strong case for Bong, Mendes, Scorsese and Tarantino – four very strong films, but I have a hard time agreeing with the nomination for Todd Phillips over Greta Gerwig. I thought Joker was a good (not great) movie. It was a mega hit, earning over a billion dollars at the box office. But much like Renee Zellweger in Judy, I thought Joaquin Phoenix gave a great performance in a good movie. To me, to make that movie, Phillips only needed Joaquin to be great. Gerwig, on the other hand, directed a large and talented ensemble in a period piece based on a beloved book that has been adapted many times before – a much higher degree of difficulty . I have never read the book or seen any of the previous films, but I can say that I really enjoyed this movie. It is a great story, told by a very talented filmmaker, who will hopefully win an Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay this year. It would be even better if her partner Noah Baumbach also wins for Best Original Screenplay for Marriage Story. Lucky for this couple, they are nominated in separate Screenplay categories.
So, who will win? Tough to say. In the ten years since the Best Picture category was expanded, the Best Director and Best Picture winners have been different half of the time. Two notable instances were when Ben Affleck won Best Picture for Argo in 2012, while not even being nominated for Best Director, and in 2016 when La La Land did not win Best Picture despite Damien Chazelle’s win as Best Director. You remember the buffoon partner from PriceWaterhouseCoopers who was distracted by Emma Stone, right? No, I’m not still bitter. With such a strong field here and the New Academy trend of spreading the wealth, it feels like this could be a split year again. Let’s come back to this after we discuss Best Picture.
Best Picture
- 1917
- Ford v Ferrari
- The Irishman
- Jojo Rabbit
- Joker
- Little Women
- Marriage Story
- Parasite
- Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
As the award season has been unfolding, Best Picture feels like it is shaping up to be a race between frontrunner 1917 (winner of the Golden Globe Drama and Producers Guild Award) and either Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood (winner of the Golden Globe Comedy) or Parasite (making a late charge after winning the Screen Actors Guild Award for Best Ensemble Cast). This is also a battle between Old Academy (1917 – they historically love war movies) vs. New Academy (Once Upon a Time and Parasite – both unconventional stories). If Best Picture and Best Director are split, that could leave one of these three films on the outside looking in.
Sam Mendes, director of 1917, won for both Director and Picture in 1999 for American Beauty (boy, has that film aged poorly for a few reasons). Tarantino has never won for Director or Picture, but has two Oscars for Original Screenplay for Pulp Fiction and Django Unchained. Parasite is also the favorite for Best International Feature film, so perhaps that is how the Academy rewards Bong? It feels like Mendes will win for Best Director (especially after just winning the Directors Guild Award), rewarding him for the technical achievement of 1917, and maybe Tarantino finally gets his Best Picture for Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood? Maybe we have a shocker and Parasite wins? Of course, that could all be wishful thinking because those were my two favorite films of the year, and I’ll be wondering why I didn’t see the Joker win coming.
Hope you enjoyed my Oscars preview. Next week will be my last post on the 2019 year in film, where I’ll be discussing some great documentaries that I saw. Thanks again for reading!