April 16, 2021
Well, after the positive reaction to my post about Taylor Swift last week, I’m thinking of doing a deep dive into my top 100 Taylor songs. Hey, what else am I going to write about when the movie calendar keeps shifting? The latest casualties – Top Gun: Maverick moved from July to November, and Mission: Impossible 7 moved to May of 2022. (Insert face-palm emoji here). Oh well, there are still plenty of movies coming out over the next several months. Much like last year, I expect we’ll still see a heavy rotation through the streaming services, but the theater releases are starting to pick up again. The studios are just trying to maximize whatever they can get for those opening weekends, and with vaccinations continuing to accelerate, they are betting they can get the easing of restrictions over the next few months, which should lead to audiences returning to theaters, especially for the bigger titles, like Top Gun: Maverick.
Don’t worry – I was only kidding about the deep dive into Taylor’s catalogue. I’m shifting back to my sweet spot this week for a good old fashioned Oscars preview. Yes, the long and winding 16 month movie season is coming to an end. Last Summer, the Academy decided to extend the release window for award eligibility by two months, with films released before February 28, 2021 eligible for this year’s Oscars. At the time, I wondered if it would even matter. No one predicted that the pandemic would be over by the end of February. But, at least it gave studios a chance to decide a strategy for a film that was on their short list of award contenders.
They could take the time to finish the film, and get it released, even if it meant selling it to a streaming service (like Paramount did when they sold The Trial of the Chicago 7 to Netflix). They could strategically pick a few film festivals to get their movies out for critics to review, and then get a combo theater / streaming / video on demand release in February, just in time for the Oscars. This was the strategy we saw with Nomadland, Minari, The Father, and Judas and the Black Messiah, films that were released late in the cycle and subsequently picked up a number of nominations. Some movies peaked too early (like Spike Lee’s excellent Da 5 Bloods, which debuted in June on Netflix and was forgotten by the end of the year by the Academy). And of course, some studios punted their release dates to 2021, especially if they saw production delays, like Steven Spielberg’s remake of West Side Story, coming to theaters this Christmas. Regardless of how it all played out, there were still a number of very good movies released this year, as I wrote about in my 2020 wrap up series.
As the industry limps across the finish line, we finally have closure on Sunday April 25th with the Oscar ceremony. Much like most of the awards ceremonies this past year, this one will look different. There won’t be a big gathering in an auditorium. It looks like the producers (who include legendary director Steven Soderbergh) are planning to have a number of locations from which the ceremony will be televised, and apparently, they are not allowing Zoom acceptance speeches, which is a shame for one thing I loved about the Golden Globes, which I will get to later in this post. All in all, I expect the viewership will be down from last year – all television viewers for live events have plummeted in the last year, so I don’t expect the Oscars to be any different. That’s ok, though. While it’s certainly not important who wins a trophy, it’s fun to see which films and artists are recognized and I always find awards season a good way to find new movies to see and discover new actors and directors. One last point – the best part about the delayed ceremony is that every one of the films covered below are available to watch from home – either on a streaming service, or for rental on demand. So, you have plenty of time to check out some of the nominees before the ceremony next weekend. OK, onto the preview.
The Nominees
Much like the last few years, there weren’t a ton of surprises when the nominations were announced, as we started to see many of the contenders recognized by other organizations, like the Golden Globes, the Directors Guild, the Screen Actors Guild, and various critics’ awards. There were a few choices that I wish were different, but overall, this feels like a pretty good representation of this most unusual year in film. Let’s get to the nominees.
Best Supporting Actor
- Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (1st nomination)
- Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah (2nd nomination, no previous wins)
- Leslie Odom, Jr. – One Night in Miami (1st nomination)
- Paul Raci – Sound of Metal (1st nomination)
- Lakeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah (1st nomination)
Every award season has at least one of the acting nominees win just about every award, and this year that actor will likely be Daniel Kaluuya for his brilliant performance as Fred Hampton, the leader of the Black Panther Party in Judas and the Black Messiah. This film was released very late in the season, but that didn’t slow it down from grabbing six Oscar nominations. I didn’t cover this one in my 2020 year in review, because I didn’t see it in time. Needless to say, this film is near the top of the movies I have seen so far in 2021 and I highly recommend it. In addition to Kaluuya’s transformational and mesmerizing performance, his co-star and fellow nominee Lakeith Stanfield delivers an excellent portrayal of Bill O’Neill, the FBI informant who betrays Hampton, in a performance that balances his tortured guilt with his desperation to follow the FBI’s orders. It’s nice to see Paul Raci get a nomination for Sound of Metal, one of my favorites of the year, but this one is Kaluuya’s to lose.
Best Supporting Actress
- Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (1st nomination)
- Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy (8th nomination, no previous wins)
- Olivia Colman – The Father (2nd nomination, previous win for The Favourite)
- Amanda Seyfried – Mank (1st nomination)
- Yuh-Jung Youn– Minari (1st nomination)
If you’re looking for a wild card in the acting categories, this might be the one. When the award season releases started coming out, it looked like Amanda Seyfried might be the front runner for her portrayal as Marion Davies in David Fincher’s Mank. But then her stock started to slide a little bit, when the film didn’t take off as expected. When it became clear that Ron Howard’s Hillbilly Elegy looked like your classic Oscar bait, it seemed that it would finally be Glenn Close’s time to win an Oscar. Then, we actually saw the movie (my biggest disappointment of 2020) and, despite a cartoonish performance, she was somehow still nominated. Olivia Colman, who seems to win every award she is nominated for, emerged as a candidate once The Father started getting wide release. Oh, and the last time Close had a serious shot at winning, Colman beat her two years ago in an upset. Maria Bakalova had a 15 minute window where it seemed like her winning performance in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (which I found mildly amusing, helped tremendously by Bakalova’s performance) might produce an upset. But her potential also seemed to fade, after losing the Golden Globe to Jodie Foster, who wasn’t even nominated here.
So, while it seems like the Academy might reward Close in a career-recognition move, not necessarily for her performance in Hillbilly Elegy, there has been a new candidate emerging as a potential spoiler to Close’s coronation. Following wins by many critics associations, and at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, Yuh-Jung Youn just might pull off the win for her role as the sweet and funny grandmother in Minari. The beautiful film about a South Korean family’s search for the American dream was nominated for six awards, and while there is a chance it might pick up a screenplay award, this is a likely spot for the Academy to recognize the film. It could be yet another nomination without a win for Close.
Best Leading Actor
- Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal (1st nomination)
- Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (1st nomination)
- Anthony Hopkins – The Father (6th nomination, previous win for The Silence of the Lambs)
- Gary Oldman – Mank (3rd nomination, previous win for Darkest Hour)
- Steven Yeun – Minari (1st nomination)
OK, maybe there are two acting awards that are likely locked up before the ceremony. There has been some sentiment growing for Steven Yeun’s wonderful performance as the family patriarch in Minari, and Anthony Hopkins for his heartbreaking portrayal of a man battling the devastating impacts of dementia in The Father. But this race was over as soon as we all saw Chadwick Boseman’s electric performance in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. Boseman, who passed away from cancer at the age of 43 last Summer, has been winning almost every award this season, and seems a shoe-in to become just the third posthumous Oscar winner for acting. Having seen most of Boseman’s movies, it’s hard to believe that the same actor playing trumpet player Levee Green also portrayed James Brown in Get on Up and Jackie Robinson in 42. What a tremendous talent he was, gone way too soon.
Best Leading Actress
- Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (4th nomination, previous win for Fences)
- Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday (1st nomination)
- Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman (1st nomination)
- Frances McDormand – Nomadland (6th nomination, previous wins for Fargo and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
- Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman (2nd nomination, no previous wins)
A year ago, we went into the Oscar ceremony with the award for Best Leading Actress virtually locked up, with Renee Zellweger the predicted (and eventual) winner for Judy. This year, however, is much different, and resembles the Best Supporting Actress race. While Nomadland has been an award season favorite, and Frances McDormand could win her third award (trailing only Katherine Hepburn, who has the record with four), I’m starting to think she’s not going to win this one. Incidentally, McDormand is a producer on Nomadland, so she will receive an Oscar if the film wins Best Picture. Despite receiving many critics’ awards, she was beaten out by Andra Day at the Golden Globes, and by Viola Davis at the Screen Actors Guild Awards. Carey Mulligan was outstanding in Promising Young Woman and started to have some momentum after the nominations, but that seems to have faded. If they shared the vote totals, I suspect this one would be close, and I think Davis is going to win this one for her transformational performance as Ma Rainey. A win here would be a nice outcome, alongside the expected win of her co-star Chadwick Boseman.
Best Director
- Thomas Vinterberg – Another Round (1st nomination)
- David Fincher – Mank (3rd nomination, no previous wins)
- Lee Isaac Chung – Minari (1st nomination)
- Chloé Zhao – Nomadland (1st nomination)
- Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman (1st nomination)
I could probably just say “Chloé Zhao is going to win,” and leave it at that. But that’s no fun. In reality, she probably will – she has already racked up many awards for her excellent directing job on Nomadland, including the Directors Guild Award, which is usually a good sign for the Oscars. And that’s not to dismiss her accomplishment and broad recognition. Assuming she wins, she’ll be only the second woman to win the honor, a sign that the Academy still has a loooooong way to go when it comes to diversity. I liked Nomadland a lot – I thought it was beautifully shot, the story was moving, and the performances of Frances McDormand, David Strathairn and all of the real-life “nomads” made for a nice movie. So, what else to say about this category? Well, two things.
First, every once in a while, you see the nomination of someone who is “just happy to be there.” That’s the case with Thomas Vinterberg, receiving recognition for Another Round, the excellent front-runner for Best International Feature Film. Vinterberg has no shot of winning, but the fact that he got a nomination (a likely result of the expanded international membership in the Academy) is a nice story. And we got to see his reaction here. The second thing to say is about one of my favorites, David Fincher. This is his third nomination and for all of the technical brilliance of Mank, it just doesn’t seem to have resonated with the filmgoing world as much as he probably would have liked. And with the Academy not allowing Zoom appearances this year, we will miss out on Fincher doing a repeat of what he did at the Golden Globes. As the losses mounted, my man made a toast and took a shot with every loss. That’s how you celebrate your film and mourn your award loss in style. Here is the video proof if you missed it. That’s all I’ve got to say. Oh yeah, Chloé Zhao is going to win.
Best Picture
We have eight films nominated this year, with the Academy expanding the Best Picture nominations to ten movies starting next year. We’re going to tackle each of these nominees based on my guess of least likely to most likely to win. Before we dive in, I have to credit the picture above to Olly Gibbs, who creates a poster of the Best Picture nominees each year. You can see the creative work of this artist here.
- The Father – I haven’t written much about this film, mostly because it wasn’t really available until recently, and only in limited theatrical release and on demand rental. I was lucky to catch The Father last year at a virtual film festival and thought it was excellent, earning a spot in my top 20 movies of the year. This is an adaptation of a stage play by Florian Zeller, who co-wrote and directed the film. It’s the story of a man, played by Anthony Hopkins, struggling with dementia and his relationship with his daughter, played by Olivia Colman. The Father was very well received, landing six total nominations, and while it comes across very similar to a play, with its simplicity, the way the script was written was very clever. The story is told in such a way, without revealing any spoilers, that makes us truly appreciate what Hopkins’s character is experiencing, in a unique way that other movies that have told this kind of story haven’t done before. As much as I like the film, I think it’s a long shot for Best Picture.
- Sound of Metal – If you read my top ten list of my favorite films of 2020, you know how much I loved this story of a drummer in a heavy metal band who loses his hearing, catapulting him into a life-changing set of experiences. Sound of Metal will likely win the Oscar for Best Sound, given its brilliant use of sound to take us inside the head of the main character, played by Riz Ahmed. The six Oscar nominations are a victory for this film, and even one win would be a cherry on top of the ice cream. It’s unlikely to be for Best Picture.
- Promising Young Woman – This movie is in a similar category as Sound of Metal. Debut filmmaker (Best Director nominee Emerald Fennell), excellent lead performance (Best Actress nominee Carey Mulligan) and solid reviews and reactions from critics and audiences. I thought this was an excellent film, as I wrote about here, and thought the nominations were well-earned. I could see Mulligan winning, as I noted above, or Fennell winning a Best Screenplay Oscar, but Best Picture seems like a long-shot.
- Mank – This is the last of the eight nominees that I think have very little shot of winning. Despite my admiration for Fincher’s tribute to Hollywood 1940s, as I wrote about here, I think it just didn’t resonate with audiences and critics enough to have an impact on its award chances. Mank was the most nominated film, with ten Oscar nods, and there is a chance it will only win a few, if any. I could see some technical wins (cinematography, costume design, production design, etc.), but it will likely get shut out of the big awards. At the end of the day, Mank was a nice tribute by Fincher to the golden era of Hollywood and his father, who wrote the original script before he died. I’m already looking forward to whatever Fincher does next.
- Judas and the Black Messiah – As I mentioned at the top of this post, this film is probably the one that has benefited the most since the Academy extended its deadline. Judas and the Black Messiah was released in mid-February in theaters and on HBO Max, as part of Warner Bros. controversial distribution model. The movie is outstanding, telling a riveting story with top-notch performances, and is one of those rare films that delivers an important message without being preachy or boring in its execution. Given the momentum the film has received the last few months, especially with Daniel Kaluuya likely winning for Best Supporting Actor, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a win for Best Picture, capturing the essence of 2020 as a year when the voices for social justice were louder than we’ve seen in a long time.
- The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Now, if the Academy were looking to reward a film that captures a moment of time when people spoke out against injustices in the world, it could easily reward Judas and the Black Messiah. But, I could also see the Academy awarding Best Picture to Aaron Sorkin’s The Trial of the Chicago 7, which feels very much like an “old school” Academy favorite. This reminds me a little bit of when Spotlight won in 2015 – a crowd pleasing film about people fighting back against the system. And the Academy does seem to like Sorkin. Another factor here is that the film won the Best Cast award at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, and the actors make up the largest percentage of the Academy’s voting bloc. So, it does have a shot to win.
- Minari – I’m calling this the Parasite effect. Last year, it seemed like we were marching our way toward 1917, an “old school” war movie (that I thought was excellent) winning Best Picture. But in a pretty big upset, Parasite became the first foreign language film to win the award. Minari hasn’t been widely seen, since its release was delayed many times last year, and only opened in theaters and on demand a few months ago. But that doesn’t mean that the voting members haven’t seen it. One of the other factors to consider is that the Academy membership has expanded its membership of international members over the last year, and this film may appeal to that membership base. While Minari is not an international movie, it is a story about a South Korean family, and has an underdog vibe that I could see winning the top prize, which would be a surprise on the level of what we saw last year, or when Moonlight beat out La La Land four years ago.
- Nomadland – This is the “don’t overthink it” pick. From the time it debuted at fall film festivals, Nomadland has seemed to be an unstoppable train headed towards an Oscar coronation. It won Best Picture – Drama at the Golden Globes in February and has racked up many critics’ awards for Best Picture over the last few months. Was it the best picture of last year? I had it in my top ten and thought it was excellent, so it seems like a worthy winner. As much as I liked so many movies this past year, I wonder what we will think of in ten or twenty years when we look back on the year in film that we just saw, beyond the obvious impacts of the pandemic. That being said, after a disruptive year across the world, I think that an independent film about a woman overcoming adversity with the help of a community of friends to find the best life for herself would be a fitting way to end the 2020 year in movies.
That’s all for this week. I hope you enjoyed my Oscars preview. If there are still movies you want to check out before the ceremony, you can find where to watch them on Justwatch.com, or by following the link from the film index here. I’ll be back next week and if you’d like to be notified of future posts, you can subscribe here.