2021 Oscar Preview

February 25, 2022

Ahead of this year’s nominations for the Academy Awards, and since they were announced a few weeks ago, there has been the usual hand-wringing we’ve seen the last several years, starting with “Do the Oscars still matter?”  Along those same lines, we hear the argument about why the Academy continues to nominate films perceived as “artsy” and not blockbusters.  This has been an issue for as long as the Summer blockbuster has been a thing, highlighted in the 1980s and 1990s when period piece dramas were nominated a lot more than the latest superhero or disaster flick, regardless how much money they earned at the box office. 

Following a groundswell of complaints in 2008 when The Dark Knight was not nominated for Best Picture (despite eight other awards, including Heath Ledger’s posthumous win for Best Supporting Actor as The Joker), the Academy announced an expansion of Best Picture eligibility.  The last decade has seen confusing criteria that led to between five and ten nominees, with this year’s award starting a simpler rule where we will have ten nominees each year.  At the time, everyone thought this would open up the door for more popular movies and for a few years, it seemed to work.  Films like Avatar, Inception, Mad Max: Fury Road, Get Out and Black Panther all received Best Picture nominations, a result that would have seemed highly unlikely prior to the eligibility change.  We could also mention the Academy’s misguided intention to create a new award called “Most Popular Movie” that was so roundly mocked that it was nixed before being implemented.  You would think they would have buried that idea forever, but then we had a little juggernaut in 2021 that brought it back in an even worse construct.

This year’s campaign (albeit a massive longshot) was to get Spider-Man: No Way Home into the Best Picture nominations.  After all, what movie was more important to the industry in 2021 than the film that has earned almost $800 million at the box-office and probably single-handedly saved the movie theater industry after a two-year pandemic?   But it was not meant to be.  Then, the marketing department at the Academy got to work.  Shortly after the nominations came out, amidst criticism for not recognizing the webslinger with a Best Picture nom, the Academy announced a campaign that reeks of desperation to respond to the criticism.  They created a contest where people could vote (on Twitter) for their favorite film of 2021.  A few lucky winners will receive some prizes and the winning picture will be announced on the show.  Yikes, this seems like a blatant attempt to recognize 2021’s box-office juggernaut and just might be worse than the Most Popular Movie idea.

Don’t get me wrong, I thought Spider-Man: No Way Home was excellent and a lot of fun.  But, if you’re trying to get more interest in the Oscars, throwing a pity nomination (or a manufactured Twitter prize) to try to get more eyeballs to tune into a three-hour telecast isn’t going to matter.  The people who went to see this movie in theaters over and over again were never going to watch the Oscars.  Maybe if stars Tom Holland and Zendaya were the hosts, you might get some curiosity views, but they’d be checking out as soon as the second hour kicked into high gear and we were slogging through another music performance or awards we just don’t care about.  And you know what?  I’m fine with this.

This is not the 1980s.  Not only when it comes to the Oscars, but when it comes to EVERYTHING in our lives.  I don’t care that only 7 – 10 million people might watch the ceremony, when it used to be appointment viewing.  Do the Oscars matter anymore?  They do to me and millions of others.  Just not as many as forty years ago when we only had three networks and a handful of cable channels to watch.  Unless your television show includes the words “National Football League”, ratings are so much lower for everything compared to thirty or forty years ago.  Who cares?  Let’s not take this too seriously – we’re talking about handing out trophies for something called “Best” in a medium that is technically “art.”  Let’s enjoy it for what it is – a way for people who don’t follow the film industry closely to learn about some of the more impressive pictures made in the last calendar year.

So, now that the nominations are out, what do we think?  I have to say that (other than a few minor surprises), I was pretty happy with how things turned out.  It probably wouldn’t surprise you if you’ve been reading my 2021 film year in review series, since seven of my top ten (and my honorable mention movie) were among the ten Best Picture nominees.  I swear that’s a coincidence.  I’ve had my top ten solidified for a while now – the last week or two was just tinkering with the order.  Also, this was a pretty strong year in movies, especially considering the massive disruption in the industry the last two years.  It wasn’t as good as 2019 (an excellent year for films), but certainly better than last year.  It’s funny, looking back at my writing about 2020 in movies – while there were some good films that year, there certainly weren’t many “great” ones that we will talk about for years to come. 

OK, we’re going to do a quick preview of the major categories this week.  The ceremony is not until March 27^th, so I’m doing this one pretty early, to give you plenty of time to check out some of these movies before the awards are handed out.  Most of these nominees are available to watch at home, either on a streaming service or to rent on demand.  If you want to find where to check out these movies, you can find a link to JustWatch.com via my film index here.  Let’s dive in.

Best Supporting Actress

• Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter (1^st nomination)
• Ariana DeBose – West Side Story (1^st nomination)
• Judi Dench – Belfast (8^th nomination, previous win for Shakespeare in Love)
• Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog (1^st nomination)
• Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard (1^st nomination)

As the award season started to take shape, there was a clear favorite emerging in the Supporting Actress category and barring an upset for someone who might be gaining steam, this one looks like it’s Ariana DeBose’s to lose.  Now, this category has historically been one to deliver major upsets (Marissa Tomei and Anna Paquin come quickly to mind), but it wouldn’t be that much of an upset if someone other than DeBose won for her portrayal of Anita in West Side Story.  She was excellent in the film, and I’d be fine with her winning the award.  There has been a little chatter recently that Kirsten Dunst, one of my favorite actresses of the last twenty years, could pull this one off.  I would also be happy with that result because she was outstanding in The Power of the Dog, where she was nominated along with her husband Jesse Plemons.

A few other oddities with this category to point out.  Jessie Buckley (who I was thrilled to see nominated – she is such a talented actress) joins a short list (along with Olivia Colman) of performers nominated for playing the same character in the same film for The Lost Daughter.  One of the more famous instances was Kate Winslet and Gloria Stuart’s nominations for Titanic.  Also, if DuBose were to win, she’d be following in the footsteps of Rita Moreno, who won her Oscar for playing Anita in the 1961 version of West Side Story.  The first occurrence of this was Marlon Brando and Robert De Niro both winning for their portrayal of Vito Corleone in The Godfather and its sequel.  Speaking of which, for its 50^th anniversary, The Godfather is now playing in theaters for a very limited time.  If you ever wanted to see this masterpiece on the big screen, now is the time to check it out.

Best Supporting Actor

• Ciarán Hinds – Belfast (1^st nomination)
• Troy Kotsur – CODA (1^st nomination)
• Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog (1^st nomination)
• J.K. Simmons – Being the Ricardos (2^nd nomination, previous win for Whiplash)
• Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog (1^st nomination)

Much like the Supporting Actress award seems to be down to two performers, such is the case with this award as well.  First a few comments about the nominees.  I wasn’t wild about Being the Ricardos (as much as I like J.K. Simmons) so I didn’t think it deserved three acting nominations.  And I didn’t mince words about my disdain for Belfast.  So, I was a little disappointed with these choices.  I would have loved to see Bradley Cooper get recognized for Licorice Pizza or Ben Affleck for The Tender Bar or even The Last Duel.  But it wouldn’t have mattered (except more star power at the awards ceremony, if you think that is important), because I think there are only two possible winners here.

When the awards season started last Fall, we started reading about Troy Kotsur as a front-runner as the father of the deaf family in CODA.  With his recognition, he became only the second deaf actor nominated – the other being Marlee Matlin, who happens to play his wife in CODA and won an Oscar for Children of a Lesser God.  You’ve read (way too many times) about my love for CODA, so I’d be perfectly content with Kotsur winning.  But in the last month or two, a new favorite has emerged – Kodi Smit-McPhee as the tortured son in The Power of the Dog.  The film was the leader in nominations, earning nods for all four of its acting leads, but Smit-McPhee may have the best shot at winning.  His performance as Peter was magnificent, especially considering the challenge of the role, and acting opposite Benedict Cumberbatch, who demonstrates a full method-acting display of a repressed misogynistic asshole.  It’s kind of a shame that only one of them can win, because Kostur and Smit-McPhee were both great in their films, and I’m not sure we’ll see them nominated again anytime soon.  They seemed to be playing roles tailor made for them, so it’s hard to imagine either of them capturing the Academy’s attention for another role in the future.  Whichever way this one plays out, I’d be happy with either winner. 

Best Leading Actress

• Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye (3^rd nomination, no previous wins)
• Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter (3^rd nomination, previous win for The Favourite)
• Penélope Cruz – Parallel Mothers (4^th nomination, previous win for Vicky Cristina Barcelona)
• Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos (5^th nomination, previous win for The Hours)
• Kristen Stewart – Spencer (1^st nomination)

Of the four acting awards in this year’s nominations, this is clearly the one that has the widest range of outcomes.  I wouldn’t be that shocked at anyone winning here.  Now, I’d be mildly surprised if Chastain won, despite a performance that I thought was excellent – it’s just that the film hasn’t received much recognition.  And I’d be kind of surprised if Kidman won, but that might be tainted by my lukewarm reaction to her film.  That being said, Hollywood has always loved movies about Hollywood, so it could happen.  And while I would never rule out Olivia Colman (nominated for her third Oscar in four years, and recently dominating the awards circuit for her performance on The Crown), I think this one is going to Kristen Stewart, with a potential surprise win for Penélope Cruz.  But first a few words about each of these films.

I saw Spencer back in November when it was released and thought it was a very good movie.  It’s now streaming on Hulu if you want to check it out.  While Stewart plays Princess Diana, this is not a flowery biopic and not The Crown.  Instead, the story takes place over a Christmas weekend at one of the royal family’s country mansions at a time when Diana realizes that her marriage to Prince Charles was falling apart.  Stewart has described Spencer as a bit of a fever dream, and it definitely has elements of a suspenseful horror movie as we see the suffocating terror that Diana felt being part of that family.  The style from director Pablo Lorrain (who made the excellent Jackie, with Natalie Portman playing Jackie Kennedy in a similar type of story) and the score from composer Jonny Greenwood bring this “horror” feeling to life on the screen.  So, this movie is definitely not for everyone, but Stewart was magnificent in her performance.  I feel like she is the front-runner.

That being said, don’t be surprised to hear Cruz’s name announced as the winner for a movie that most people haven’t heard of due to its late release in the United States.  Parallel Mothers is a Spanish film that showcases the story of two women who meet in the hospital when they both go into labor.  Both pregnancies were unexpected and the women deal with the aftermath of the impact these children have on their lives.  There is a subplot with Cruz’s character researching her family’s history and how it unfolded during the Spanish Civil War in the 1930s that adds to the complexity of her character’s journey.  I liked this movie a lot, particularly the performance from Cruz and the story from Pedro Almodóvar, who wrote and directed the film, and has collaborated with Cruz on a number of movies in their careers.  Like most international films, Parallel Mothers has been a challenge to find – I was only able to see it a few weeks ago.  It is still playing in select theaters and recently became available to rent on demand.  Fun fact on this one – Cruz is married to Javier Bardem, who was also nominated in our next category. 

Best Leading Actor

• Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos (4^th nomination, previous win for No Country for Old Men)
• Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog (2^nd nomination, no previous wins)
• Andrew Garfield – tick, tick… BOOM! (2^nd nomination, no previous wins)
• Will Smith – King Richard (3^rd nomination, no previous wins)
• Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth (9^th nomination, previous wins for Glory and Training Day)

As much as I admire the acting ability of Javier Bardem, his nomination was the one I wish were different.  He was fine as Ricky Ricardo, and I think his recognition was definitely influenced by the Academy’s love of him and stories about Hollywood.  I really wish Bradley Cooper had been recognized for his work in Nightmare Alley, which received a surprising four nominations, including Best Picture.  Oh well, just like Supporting Actor, this one is shaping up as a battle of two strong performances and, in a similar fashion we saw last year, we have a fan favorite American going up against a critically-acclaimed British master of performance.

Last year, it seemed like a shoe-in that Chadwick Boseman would win a posthumous Oscar for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, but was upset by Anthony Hopkins’ brilliant performance in The Father.  The fan favorite this year is clearly Will Smith, who has been entertaining fans since the mid-1980s, and was fantastic as the father of Venus and Serena Williams in King Richard.  The heartwarming family story received strong reviews when it came out, but a big problem is that it hasn’t been seen by a lot of people and Smith seems to have been bumped to the backup choice behind Benedict Cumberbatch, for his role in The Power of the Dog.  I think either one of these choices would be a good one, but feel like this might be Smith’s best chance to get his Oscar, where Cumberbatch will likely be nominated again in the future.  Despite Smith’s strong roles in his two previous nominations (Ali and The Pursuit of Happyness), he’s never taken home the big prize.  You would figure they’d have to give it to him now, right?  Well, Tom Cruise still hasn’t won an Oscar, and Boseman didn’t win last year.  So, the Academy is a fickle bunch.  This is an award where you wish they released the vote totals, because I could see this one being a nail biter.

Best Director

• Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza (3^rd nomination for Best Director.  11 nominations including writing, directing and producing.  No previous wins.)
• Kenneth Branagh – Belfast (2^nd nomination for Best Director.  8 nominations including writing, directing, producing and acting.  No previous wins.)
• Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog (2^nd nomination for Best Director.  5 nominations including writing, directing and producing.  Previous win for writing The Piano.)
• Ryûsuke Hamaguchi – Drive My Car (1^st nomination.  Also nominated for writing and producing the film.)
• Steven Spielberg – West Side Story (1^st nomination.  Just kidding.  Check out these stats – 7^th nomination for Best Director, 19 nominations including directing and producing, the first person to be nominated for Best Director in six consecutive decades.  Previous wins for directing and producing Schindler’s List and directing Saving Private Ryan.)

The longshots here appear to be Spielberg (as weird as that sounds – there’s a general feeling that he’s received plenty of recognition and the nomination here is the award), Hamaguchi (a likely winner for Best International Film) and Anderson (who is the front-runner for Best Original Screenplay).  Now, I haven’t spent much time in this preview on Belfast, mostly because the film didn’t resonate with me.  But I am probably in denial – Branagh will likely get some recognition for his portrayal of growing up during a turbulent time in Northern Ireland, but it probably won’t be in this category.  He is going up against Anderson in Original Screenplay and if he denies PTA of winning an Oscar this year, my feelings will probably accurately demonstrate that I take this stuff way too seriously.  But I digress.

The strong favorite here is clearly Campion for her work on The Power of the Dog.  You don’t get twelve nominations for your picture without being recognized as one of the Best Directors.  But wait, first we need to talk about the biggest snub of all of these nominations.  How do you create one of the most impressive films in recent years, bringing a new world to life on the screen, integrating amazing special effects, sound design, and costumes, not to mention adapting a cherished story admired by a rabid fan base, and not be recognized as the person who created it?  This isn’t a film that was ignored by the Academy.  Quite the contrary, Dune received ten total nominations and will likely win a number of the technical categories.  Despite all of that love, the Academy couldn’t find a spot for director Denis Villeneuve.  The narrative since the snub came to light was that his likely spot was taken by Hamaguchi as Drive My Car made a late push with the critics.  While that might be true, I’d have swapped out Branagh for Villeneuve in a heartbeat.  Not much else to say about this award – it’s likely to be Campion for the win, and it’s much deserved.  Hopefully Villeneuve gets recognition for the Dune sequel, when we see it in 2023.

Best Picture

• Belfast
• CODA
• Don’t Look Up
• Drive My Car
• Dune
• King Richard
• Licorice Pizza
• Nightmare Alley
• The Power of the Dog
• West Side Story

I could talk myself into almost any winner here if I wanted to pick a certain narrative playing out.  But as much as I’d like to think through a possible scenario, or go with my heart, I’ll tackle this one with my head.  Let’s start by eliminating some of the nominees who are probably in the category of “It’s nice to be nominated.”

The nod for Nightmare Alley was probably the biggest surprise on this list, so it’s unlikely to get the win here, especially since director Guillermo del Toro just won for The Shape of Water four years ago.  While some thought Drive My Car could get a nomination given its inclusion on so many critics’ top ten lists, I don’t see the Academy rewarding another foreign-language film so soon after Parasite won two years ago.  I may have a blind spot on this one and the Academy’s increase in international members over the last few years could surprise me.  And I also don’t see the Academy giving Best Picture to West Side Story, probably with the thinking that the 1961 version won Best Picture and an award for DeBose as Best Supporting Actress would be a nice recognition for the film.  Speaking of which.

As I have written in my previous Oscar previews, the Academy has been largely taking an approach of “spreading the wealth” in recent years and recognizing a number of films each year, and not concentrating too many Oscars on one picture, like we saw with Gandhi and Amadeus in the 1980s.  With that in mind, it feels like CODA, King Richard, and Licorice Pizza will probably have to settle for an acting or screenplay award instead of the big prize.  As much as my heart would love to see the CODA team on stage at the end of the night and see the Academy recognize a heartwarming family movie for a change, my head doesn’t see it happening.

That leaves four choices left.  Could Dune win?  Unlikely, but not impossible.  Yes, a film has won Best Picture without the director receiving a nomination.  It’s happened five times in history, but twice in the last decade with Argo and Green Book.  Still, I don’t think it will happen this year.  Speaking of the Director / Picture combo.  If Campion wins Best Director, is she a shoe-in for Best Picture?  Not necessarily.  It happens frequently, but not always.  My head tells me The Power of the Dog wins Best Picture, but there’s a chance that chaos erupts and Don’t Look Up wins.  Hollywood loves its director Adam McKay and they love social causes.  With the film’s theme as an allegory about climate change, could they try to “send a message” and reward Don’t Look Up with Best Picture?  If either of these two films win the big prize, it would be Netflix’s first major Oscar win, solidifying its strategy to go heavy into film production over the last decade.  Could that be the outcome?  Or will the Academy’s heartstrings be tugged by Belfast and reward Kenneth Branagh for a personal story that many have loved, even if I didn’t?  Will I force myself to watch it again to see if I was wrong with my initial take about the film?  Or will I stubbornly refuse to admit I was wrong and go see Licorice Pizza again or watch CODA or Dune again?  You can probably guess the answer to that one.

That’s all for this week.  I hope you enjoyed my Oscar preview.  You have plenty of time to check out all of the nominees before the ceremony on March 27^th and find where to watch them at my Film Index here or on JustWatch.com.  I’ll be back next week for the first of a two part look at one of the biggest Hollywood stars of the last forty years – the great Tom Cruise.  He hasn’t had a film released in four years, but he’s got a big one coming this year, just in time to kick off the Summer movie season – Top Gun: Maverick.  I’ll take a look at his impressive run as a Hollywood superstar and incredible actor, albeit with some interesting career choices.  Thanks for reading and if you’d like to be notified of future posts, you can subscribe here.