September 23, 2022
Now that the summer movie season is officially over, it’s time to take a look at what is on tap for the rest of the year. After two very disruptive years in the entertainment industry due to the global pandemic, which also accelerated changes in movie distribution, 2022 saw a rebound in box office and the quality of films released. It’s not quite accurate to say “Movies are back,” with 2022 ticket revenue still trailing 2019 by about 30%, but it’s certainly better than we saw in 2020 and 2021.
State of the Movie Industry
There were three major themes in the movie industry this year. The first was a loud and clear message that for the right content, audiences will come back to theaters. We saw this with Spider-Man: No Way Home in late 2021, but that’s a Marvel property, which always delivers strong box office. This year, when the movie industry needed a hero to save the day, they didn’t call Spider-Man, Iron Man or Captain America. Nope, they called the man, the myth, the legend: Pete “Maverick” Mitchell. It is still astounding that after more than four months, Top Gun: Maverick is still performing well in theaters (even though it is also available to rent at home). The sequel (36 years in the making) is now one of the five best selling movies of all time. Absolutely crazy, especially in a time when theaters were bruised by the pandemic. I’m going to save my full review of this one until I get to my year-end series. Safe to say it will be on my top ten list.
The second theme of 2022 was the continued push and pull of theatrical vs. streaming releases. A pattern is starting to emerge where each studio has pretty much figured out their strategy. Those without a streaming service (like Sony Pictures) will release their films in theaters, followed by a video on demand release a few weeks later, and then streaming down the line. The big studios with their own service – Warner Bros. with HBO Max, Paramount with Paramount+, Walt Disney with Disney+, and Universal with Peacock (both owned by Comcast) – might go to the theaters first, followed soon after by a streaming release, or sometimes they will skip the theaters and go straight to streaming. It’s safe to assume that most movies will end up available on demand (sometimes at a premium price) or straight to streaming within a few weeks after release in theaters. There are some exceptions – for instance, if a film does really well at the box office, the home release might be delayed, like we saw with Top Gun: Maverick and Elvis.
The latter was impacted by the new strategy from Warner Bros after their merger that I covered last week. They realized that people were not going to sign up for HBO Max just to watch a new movie. So, they kept the film in theaters and on demand a little longer than usual before pushing it to the streamer. This realization is also why they scrapped the new Batgirl film, even after spending over $90 million to make it. Batgirl was almost complete and was scheduled for streaming on HBO Max. The management team realized that it wouldn’t drive subscribers to their streamer and it would cost a lot more money in marketing costs to release it in theaters. However, if they scrapped the asset entirely, they could write it off and take a massive tax deduction, helping achieve their merger synergy commitments to Wall Street. For people who worked on acquisitions (like myself), I totally get it. But the entertainment industry was dumbfounded that a movie that was almost finished will never see the light of day. And it likely never will – I am no expert, but I believe they had to declare the film to have no value and by releasing it, that would fly in the face of their tax deduction decision. Fun stuff, right? Well, only for accounting nerds like me. OK, moving on.
And then there are the new kids. Amazon Studios (which just purchased MGM Studios), Apple, and Netflix all are taking an aggressive approach to getting their films on their streaming services right away. That being said, if they want their picture to qualify for the Oscars, they need a theatrical release, even if it is in a small number of theaters for only a week or two. But they are not worried about ticket sales (which are shared with the movie theaters) – they want subscribers and their monthly fee.
So, with plenty of studios cranking out content, you would figure there would be a huge selection of movies to watch in theaters, right? Well, not so much. Yes, you can find plenty of stuff on your streaming services, but the new releases in theaters hit a brick wall in July. Two years ago, there were all sorts of delays due to the pandemic shutting theaters down and in 2021 and early this year, we saw an avalanche of movies getting released well after they were produced. West Side Story, released in 2021, was filmed in 2019, as was Top Gun: Maverick.
But that pipeline ran dry earlier this year and we are now facing the third theme hitting the movie industry – the supply side impact of the pandemic. With all of the production shutdowns in 2020 and 2021, as well as a shortage of visual effects artists, films just weren’t being made, and now we’ve had a very light supply of content the last month or two, and more releases have been pushed into 2023. So, much like every other industry, the movie world has experienced some short-circuiting in its predictability, with things just starting to even out.
But don’t lose hope – the release schedule is picking up steam as we head toward the busy film festival and award season. I’ve identified over twenty movies that I’m looking forward to over the next few months that I will cover in this two part preview. Back in March I gave an early look at some 2022 releases and some were right on the mark (Top Gun: Maverick, The Batman, and Nope), some didn’t quite work out (The Gray Man), and some were pushed to 2023. Most notably from my earlier preview, Creed III, Maestro, Napoleon, The Killer, and the one I am really looking forward to – Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon – are all going to come next year. And that’s not all – the 2023 slate of films is PHENOMENAL, but more on that another day.
OK, enough preamble – let’s jump into the 2022 fall movie preview with one that you can watch right now.
Now Playing…In Your Living Room
In my recent coverage of the best of 2022 television, I wrote about the many projects that covered the Theranos scandal, including the fantastic series The Dropout. I was thinking about this comparison when I recently watched the excellent new film Thirteen Lives, directed by Ron Howard. The story covers the heroic 2018 rescue of the boys soccer team trapped in a flooded cave in Thailand. Why the comparison? Well, the story was just covered last year in one of the best documentaries I watched in 2021, The Rescue, which was directed by the same duo who won an Oscar for directing Free Solo. The story of how the boys got trapped, how they were found, and their rescue is truly incredible. Most of us remember the story as it unfolded four years ago, but since it was halfway around the world, it wasn’t easy to follow too closely. The Rescue was a gripping story, even though we (pretty much) know how the story turned out. If you missed that one, you can find it on Disney+.
But the new film I wanted to recommend is not a documentary – it’s a narrative film and I’m kind of baffled about the release strategy. More on that in a minute. Thirteen Lives focuses on the rescue team of expert divers, played by Colin Farrell, Viggo Mortensen, and Joel Edgerton, and their interactions with the local government and volunteers to save the boys and their coach. These weren’t first responders trained to save people. They were expert cave divers who knew how to navigate the most challenging caves, and the best ones for the job, as the government officials quickly realized. Howard does a magnificent job bringing together multiple viewpoints – the rescue team, the volunteers, the local farmers who had to give up their crops to help redirect water being pumped from the cave, and the families of the boys. And even if you have seen The Rescue, this is still a compelling watch. Thirteen Lives is a little on the long side and can feel claustrophobic as we follow the divers swimming through the passageways, but neither of those facts bothered me. And the way they got these kids out was truly wild – a gutsy (but dangerous) approach, but it worked.
I’ve been reading about this film for over a year and a few months ago, it was reported that the screening test scores were so high that the studio was shifting the release to the fall in an Oscars push. Then that studio (MGM) got purchased by Amazon and once the deal closed earlier this year, the new boss changed tactics. Thirteen Lives was released in a small number of theaters (only to qualify for the Oscars) and then dumped on Amazon Prime. Now, the good news is that it is available to a very wide audience right in their living room. The bad news is that without any sort of buzz, a film can get quickly forgotten after it goes to streaming, especially if it is gone from the home screen after a week. Oh well, at least you can all watch it now and it’s one of the best movies I’ve seen this year. Thirteen Lives is now streaming on Amazon Prime.
New Films from Oscar-Winning Directors
Would you believe that the guy who directed Dumb and Dumber is a two-time Oscar-winner? Unless you follow this stuff closely, you might not have realized that Peter Farrelly won Academy Awards for writing and producing 2019’s Best Picture winner Green Book. It was a pretty good movie, kind of a typical Oscar-bait story with good performances from Viggo Mortenson and Mahershala Ali (who won his second Academy Award for his performance). In his first film since his Oscar glory, Farrelly returns with Greatest Beer Run Ever, a true-story comedy with an unusual plot. Zac Efron plays a Marine veteran who decides to bring some joy to soldiers in Vietnam by traveling there with messages from their families and well, some beer. Not sure how this one will play out, but Russell Crowe and Bill Murray have supporting roles and Efron has been pretty good in his movies, so I’ll probably check this one out. Greatest Beer Run Ever will be streaming on Apple TV+ on September 30.
There’s another Oscar-winning director back this year with a new take on the boy whose nose grew whenever he told a lie. Wait a minute – I probably should clarify a few things, because one wrong step here and you could experience something pretty painful. Robert Zemeckis (Back to the Future and Forrest Gump among other great pictures) released his new version of Pinocchio on Disney+ a few weeks ago. In full disclosure, I did not (and will not) watch this movie because it looks awful and the reviews have been terrible. On the level of “what happened to Robert Zemeckis and why is Tom Hanks in this disaster?” terrible. That’s not the film I’m talking about. Again, you’ve been warned.
No, I’m actually writing about a DIFFERENT version of Pinocchio coming from Guillermo del Toro, who won his Oscars for The Shape of Water. I never saw that film (that’s the one about the woman who falls in love with a fish-man, or something like that), but his latest picture (2021’s Nightmare Alley) was one of my favorite movies of last year. So, I might give his take on the puppet who comes to life a shot. While Zemeckis’s version was a combination of actors and animation, del Toro’s is a stop-motion animated film (think Wes Anderson’s Fantastic Mr. Fox). Now, I don’t know if the world needs yet another version of Pinocchio, but if the early reviews are positive, I will probably check it out. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio will be streaming on Netflix on December 9th.
An Emotional Drama and A Dark Comedy
Two films that are starting to get some early Oscar buzz will be coming to theaters in October. The first is Till, a historical drama about Emmett Till, the teenager who was lynched in 1955 while visiting cousins in Mississippi. Based on the early read of Till, the film focuses less on the incident itself, but more on his mother’s pursuit of justice for her son’s brutal murder. The mom is played by Danielle Deadwyler, who was one of the best parts of the brilliant HBO limited series Station Eleven. I have a feeling this one will be emotional and could be a tough watch, but it could also be an inspiring story of a mother’s crusade for her son. Till will be released in a limited number of theaters on October 14th with a broader expansion later in the month.
Five years ago, one of the best living actresses won her second of three Best Actress Oscars. That was Frances McDormand who won for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, a film that also saw Sam Rockwell win an Oscar for Best Supporting Actor. The film was a huge success and helped put its writer and director on the map. This fall Martin McDonagh is back with his next project, which received strong reviews following its premiere at the recent Venice Film Festival. The Banshees of Inisherin has been described as a dark comedy about two long-time friends who “break up” and things spiral out of control very quickly. The friends are played by Colin Farrell and Brendan Gleeson, who co-starred in 2008’s In Bruges, which was McDonagh’s first feature. That movie was a very good dark comedy about two hitmen who can’t seem to do anything right while hiding out in Belgium. Not a lot is known about The Banshees of Inisherin except that it is more in the vein of In Bruges and less like Three Billboards. Critics have praised the story and lead performances, especially Farrell, who won an acting award at the Venice Film Festival. The Banshees of Inisherin will be released in theaters on October 21st.
Can the Romantic Comedy Still Work?
Comedy is in a really weird place right now, in both movies and television. Try going back to watch films from the 80s (or even the 90s) and you’ll find all sorts of humor that would no longer be considered acceptable, some for legitimate reasons, some because we’ve become a very sensitive society. It feels like comedy writers don’t want to push the envelope too much in the fear that they will get canceled and have their career shut down. Romantic comedies are also in a strange place because it seems like streaming services (looking at you, Netflix) are churning out a new attempt at a romantic comedy film week after week. After a while it feels like you are seeing copies of copies of copies of previously seen movies. Does it take two superstars to make a romantic comedy work? We’ll find out.
Now, like most people, I’m willing to give any movie that has George Clooney and Julia Roberts a shot. But after seeing the trailer for their new film, Ticket to Paradise, I’m kind of worried that this might be….awful? The megawatt stars play a divorced couple who travel together to Bali in an attempt to stop their daughter from getting married. The theory being they don’t want her to make the same mistake they did when they married at a young age. I’m hopeful this will be a light, breezy romantic comedy that is entertaining enough, even if it doesn’t break new ground on the genre. Kind of like The Lost City, which was a nice, pleasant movie that was very successful in the theaters, probably because of the star power at the top of the film – Sandra Bullock, Channing Tatum, and a great cameo appearance from Brad Pitt. Even if it was a rip-off of Romancing the Stone, it was still a good time. Let’s hope Clooney and Roberts can make some magic as well. Ticket to Paradise will be released in theaters on October 21st.
There is another promising romantic comedy, albeit with a story that is hardly ever told in a major studio release. One of the movies getting great buzz out of the Toronto International Film Festival is Bros, starring comedian Billy Eichner, who co-wrote the film with its director Nicholas Stoller. Eichner plays a gay man who has been unlucky in love and when he falls for someone completely opposite to him, he starts to question his choice in men. We’ve seen these kind of stories many times before, but never within the gay community, so you will likely read some publicity about this aspect of the film. Now, I don’t know anything about Eichner, and while Stoller isn’t a household name, his movies certainly are. He is part of the Judd Apatow troupe and directed Forgetting Sarah Marshall and Neighbors, two of the better comedies from the last twenty years. And unlike Ticket to Paradise, the trailer for this one does look very funny. It will be interesting to see how these two romantic comedies perform at the box office. Bros will be released in theaters on September 30th.
The Big Blockbusters
With all of the talk of movies being back with a strong box office performance, the studios are keeping a few films up their sleeves for the end of year rush. These aren’t necessarily in my wheelhouse, so I don’t have a lot to say about them, but they will likely be big hits and you might be interested, so here you go.
First up is Black Adam, the next film in the DC Comics Extended Universe, with Dwayne (The Rock) Johnson starring as the titular character. To be candid, I’m not a fan of The Rock – just never got the appeal and I only tolerated him in movies I’ve watched – and I’m not a big consumer of the DC world, so this one is a hard pass for me. But it will likely churn up some big numbers when Black Adam is released in theaters on October 21st.
A few weeks later, Marvel gets their day in the sun with the release of the highly anticipated, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, the sequel to 2009’s Best Picture nominee. I decided to jump into the deep end of the Marvel ocean last year and plowed through the films of the Marvel Cinematic Universe. I have to say that I liked more than I thought I would and realized some were definitely for me (Iron Man, Captain America, Black Panther) and some were definitely not (Guardians of the Galaxy – I just don’t get the appeal of smarmy Chris Pratt). Oh well. The last few films from Marvel have been very uneven – with mixed critics reviews and box office results that have been strong, but not nearly as big as earlier titles in the franchise. The one exception being last year’s Spider-Man: No Way Home, which was just insanely successful. I’ll likely check out the new Black Panther, but I’m not sure how much longer I’m going to stick with the Marvel world. I’ve already tapped out on the television shows and think I might be ready for something different. Regardless of what I think, the audiences will likely come out in droves for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, which will be released in theaters on November 11th.
Why would anyone think we need a sequel 13 years after the original, even if it was one of the highest grossing movies of all time? What’s that? Checks math….Oh, Top Gun: Maverick came out 36 years after the original? OK, I’ll stop questioning this decision, especially when the film comes from James Cameron, who has defied the naysayers his entire career. I don’t know if the world needs a sequel to Avatar, but we’re getting one this year (and at least one or two more if Cameron has his way.) I’m going to plead ignorance on this one – I never saw the original and even though it is being re-released in theaters this weekend, I just don’t have any interest in this franchise. But millions of people will definitely disagree with me. Avatar: The Way of Water will be released in theaters on December 16h.
For the Horror Fan
With the calendar turning to October very soon, that can mean only one thing – horror movie season is here. While we can see films from this genre throughout the year, the season kicked off in earnest over the last few weeks with a few releases, including Pearl, a prequel to a movie released earlier this year. Wait, what? That’s right. Back in March, there was a horror film set in the 1970s that performed very well in the theaters. X told the story of a group of filmmakers and actors who go on location to a farmhouse to make an adult film. When the old couple who live on the farm get wind of what is going on, things start to unravel. I thought this was a very clever take on the slasher film genre and you can rent X on demand if you want to check it out.
Now, most times when a movie is successful (X generated $14M in box office against a budget of $1M), a sequel will get greenlit quickly. Director Ti West decided to try something more ambitious. While on location in New Zealand filming X, he realized that he had enough story, time, and money to make another picture. He got permission from the studio to plow forward and make Pearl, with Mia Goth (who co-wrote the prequel) starring as the lead character. Goth was fantastic in both movies and there are some good jump scares to keep the horror fan happy. Pearl is now playing in theaters.
Of course it wouldn’t be horror season without a visit from our friend Michael Myers, would it? This post is getting a little long, so I don’t have time to give you the full history on where we are in the Halloween Extended Universe. I’ll just note that the next film in the chapter is the third in the “new / latest” trilogy that began in 2018. Jamie Lee Curtis is back to once and for all take care of her nemesis (and source for decades of therapy) in Halloween Ends. The filmmakers are claiming that this is (no, really, they are serious this time) the last Halloween movie. I think we all know better. Halloween Ends will premiere in theaters and stream on Peacock on October 14th.
Now, I will probably watch the new Halloween film even though I can probably guess most of the plot. Let’s face it – it’s kind of hard to come up with something groundbreaking for a franchise like this. In fact, I didn’t even mind seeing the trailer because how can you spoil a Halloween story? On the other hand, there are two other horror movies on the way that I’m not sure if I’m going to bother with because I feel like I’ve seen the entire story in the trailer. I still don’t understand why studios continue to do this. I get it – a trailer is a marketing ploy to get people to see the movie, but you can also produce something creative that will entice audiences to go to the theater without giving up the whole plot. The two films I’m referring to are Smile (in theaters on September 30th), which is definitely a horror movie that kind of looks like a spin on The Ring. Then there is The Menu (in theaters on November 18th) which is being marketed to look like a horror movie and despite the strong cast (including Anya Taylor-Joy and Ralph Fiennes), I suspect this one will not be worth the trip, but I could be wrong. I need to start going to theaters later so I miss the trailers. Let me tell you about a movie I highly endorse that is succeeding by using the exact opposite strategy.
Hoooooooly Shiiiiiiiiit……was this a fun ride. OK, let me back up. I have a (some might say) maniacal list process for what movies I want to see, updating it for any new titles that sound appealing and where I can see them when they come out. Every once in a while a film comes out of nowhere that gets fantastic reviews and I decide to read about it (quick plot synopsis, cast, director, etc.) to see if I should add it to the list. But I try to avoid long trailers (see above). About a month ago, I started hearing about a movie coming out called Barbarian. Every single review I saw said the same thing – “Go in blind. Don’t read anything about it. Don’t watch the trailer. Just go see it in a crowded theater.” I rarely do this, but I decided, “What the hell?” So, here is what I knew about this movie when I got to the theater. 1) it’s a horror film with a plot you won’t see coming. 2) the premise is a woman checks into an AirBnB only to discover that someone else has already checked in. That’s it. That’s all I knew. And that plot point happens in the first five minutes. Let’s just say that 1) this movie is fantastic, but only for the true horror fan and 2) I literally said “What the fuck?” out loud multiple times while watching it. And it was the number one movie two weeks ago and looks like it will continue to be a hit through the Halloween season, driven by good old-fashioned word of mouth. So, that’s all I’ve got on this movie – no other details I should share. If that recommendation is enough to entice you, Barbarian is now playing in theaters. See it with a crowd – it will make for a very fun experience.
That’s all for this week. I hope you enjoyed part one of my look at the fall movie season. I’ll be back with part two next week. Thanks again for reading and if you’d like to be notified of future posts, you can subscribe here.