February 23, 2024
Why on Earth are we still focused on the films of 2023 in late February? Well, the last event on the awards calendar, the 96th Academy Awards, is not until March 10th, which means we’re crawling toward the finish line over the next two weeks. Believe me, I’m ready to move forward in 2024, especially getting the heck out of winter. This is always the worst time of year for me, even with a week-long vacation in Turks and Caicos this month. Coming back home to temperatures in the 50s, squeezing in my February round of golf (107th month in a row for those keeping score at home), followed by a foot of snow. JFC. Yup, that’s New England weather for you.
With the Oscars being relatively late on the calendar, it’s a double-edged sword. On the one hand, we’ve been talking about these movies for months, and in some cases almost a year. Also, with narratives taking shape over the course of a long period of time, there are usually few surprises on Oscar night. On the other hand, it gives people more time to see the nominated films, most of which are now available to stream or rent at home, before the ceremony. In case you like going to the theater, look for the Best Picture nominees to come back to your local theater over the next two weeks. A lot of theaters run them right before the ceremony. Speaking of finding nominated films to see, let’s cover one Best Picture nominee that I had a hard time seeing until this past month.
Compelling, But Not For Everyone – The Zone of Interest
I’ve been hearing about this movie (and the enthusiastic reaction to it) since its premiere at the Cannes Film Festival last May. For some reason, The Zone of Interest wasn’t released in the U.S. until late December and even that was just a limited release in a few cities to qualify for the Oscars. It didn’t go wide until mid-February. Once again, I implore the studios – Let People See Your Movies!!!
The Zone of Interest is the fourth feature film from director Jonathan Glazer, his first since 2013’s Under the Skin. Some people declared that movie a masterpiece, but I had a hard time connecting with it. I may give it another try. I liked his 2004 film Birth a lot, but that’s probably because Nicole Kidman is brilliant in it, proving once again how versatile she is on screen. In fact, I just discovered that it’s been 35 years since her breakout role in Dead Calm and 25 years since the bonkers Eyes Wide Shut, so I think 2024 calls for a retrospective of Kidman’s impressive career in this blog. But I digress.
Zone is the story of a German family, living next door to the Auschwitz death camp during the last few years of World War II. The man of the house is Rudolf Höss, the commandant of the camp, and is portrayed by Christian Friedel. His wife (Sandra Hüller, having an incredible year with this film and Anatomy of a Fall) minds the house and her children, supported by an army of staff. Glazer’s movie is based on the novel of the same name and while it’s a Holocaust film, we actually spend no time inside the camp. Most of the story takes place on the grounds of the Höss family home, with Glazer’s filming style making it feel like a documentary.
We see the mundane activities of the family – meals, chores, a tense visit from a mother-in-law, petty arguments about typical family stuff. What lies beneath all of the banality of this family’s life is the man’s job and their location. When he is talking with his “colleagues” about “work stuff” it’s about new equipment for the death camp and how it can work more efficiently. When his wife is excited about new clothes, we quickly realize that they came from the prisoners who were murdered next door. And while we never go inside Auschwitz, we constantly hear the terror of what is happening to the prisoners – gunshots, screaming, and the never-ending drone of trains coming and going and the ovens billowing ash into the sky. When you start to slip into the day-to-day life of the family, a stray gunshot or scream reminds you of the horror that is just off-screen, and the monsters that these people truly are.
It’s hard to say if I “liked” The Zone of Interest, as it can be challenging to watch. In some ways, Glazer has made an art film, using the sound design to depict the horrors of the death camp in a way that is both moving and terrifying. I will say that it’s an impressive movie that I am almost certain I will never watch again. The Zone of Interest is now playing in theaters and should be available to rent from home in the coming weeks.
Let’s move on to this year’s nominations.
Best Supporting Actress
- Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer (1st nomination)
- Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple (1st nomination)
- America Ferrera – Barbie (1st nomination)
- Jodie Foster – Nyad (5th nomination, previous wins for Leading Actress in The Accused and The Silence of the Lambs)
- Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers (1st nomination)
We’re going to start with the easiest award of the night to predict. Da’Vine Joy Randolph has swept almost every award this season, so count on her to win the Oscar and she deserves it. She was wonderful in The Holdovers and it’s great to see the Academy honor her with this recognition. Let’s spend a few words on the other nominees.
The biggest surprise to me in this list was that Emily Blunt had never been nominated before this year. Her performance in Oppenheimer was impressive, primarily for one scene where she lays into the men prosecuting her husband, much like the scene where America Ferrera delivers a memorable speech in Barbie about how it’s literally impossible to be a woman, paving the way to her first nomination. I was thrilled to see Danielle Brooks get recognized for her portrayal of Sofia, the same role played by Oprah Winfrey in Steven Spielberg’s 1985 version of The Color Purple. Brooks was the best part of the Netflix series Orange is the New Black and my favorite part of The Color Purple, a movie that I thought was pretty good. Last but not least is the legendary Jodie Foster, who was excellent in Nyad, a film I liked more than I thought I would. I was worried it would be a schmaltzy subpar Netflix movie, but Foster’s performance elevated it. She is great in everything she does and just wrapped up an excellent performance in the latest season of True Detective, in case you aren’t watching that one yet. Even with these other impressive performances, look for Randolph to take the stage to claim her first Oscar.
Best Supporting Actor
- Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction (1st nomination)
- Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon (9th nomination, previous wins for Leading Actor in Raging Bull and Supporting Actor in The Godfather Part II)
- Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer (3rd nomination, no previous wins)
- Ryan Gosling – Barbie (3rd nomination, no previous wins)
- Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things (4th nomination, no previous wins)
Just like last year’s win for Ke Huy Quan, this looks like one of the easiest awards to predict. Robert Downey Jr. has been hot on the Oscar campaign trail and picking up a number of awards along the way. Hollywood loves a comeback story and Downey’s is a good one, following his drug addiction in the 1990s that almost derailed his career. Of course, he helped launch the multi-billion dollar MCU franchise as Iron Man and has now turned his focus to other types of roles. His performance in Oppenheimer was magnificent and universally loved, so look for a warm reaction from the crowd when his name is called as the winner.
The other nominees in this category were exactly what I would have picked, so I’m pretty happy with how this landed. There was some late momentum from Charles Helton in May December, light chatter for Dominic Sessa in The Holdovers, and competition from Ruffalo’s co-star in Poor Things, Willem Dafoe, but they all fell short. Brown was a late surprise and I was thrilled as he was excellent in American Fiction, a terrific film that received five nominations but will likely go home empty-handed. Despite Ruffalo’s snub at the SAG awards, I’m glad he got the nod over Dafoe – his role in Poor Things had a higher degree of difficulty and Ruffalo delivered. De Niro (like DiCaprio) was excellent in Killers and it’s good to see him recognized again by the Academy (which is more than I can say about Leo’s performance – we’ll get to that.) As for Gosling, this is a nice nomination for a role that took a lot of guts to play – he embraced the foolishness of Barbie and it only worked because he and Margot Robbie committed to the bit. One day we will be applauding for Gosling on stage to pick up his first Oscar – he’s too good of an actor not to eventually win one – but this year it’s Downey’s time.
Best Leading Actress
- Annette Bening – Nyad (5th nomination, no previous wins)
- Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon (1st nomination)
- Sandra Hüller – Anatomy of a Fall (1st nomination)
- Carey Mulligan – Maestro (3rd nomination, no previous wins)
- Emma Stone – Poor Things (4th nomination, previous win for La La Land. Also nominated this year as producer for Best Picture nominee Poor Things.)
One of the big headlines after the Oscar nominations were announced was the “snub” of Margot Robbie not receiving a Best Actress nomination for Barbie. Yes, this was kind of a surprise, but it’s comparable to last year when Tom Cruise wasn’t nominated for Best Actor for Top Gun: Maverick, but did pick up a producing nod for the film’s Best Picture recognition, which Robbie also received for Barbie. The Academy is kind of stingy when it comes to rewarding the box-office champ (insert Don Draper screaming “That’s what the money’s for!” to Peggy Olson), so it’s not a total shock. Lost in the Robbie discourse was Greta Lee missing out on a nomination for Past Lives. Personally, I would have put her in over Bening, who was likely the beneficiary of heavy Netflix campaigning. Hüller and Mulligan were outstanding and one could also make an argument for Natalie Portman in May December. In reality, this was a strong movie year and there were likely seven or eight very good candidates for only five spots.
Now, as for who is going to win? It’s a toss-up between Gladstone, who was the front-runner last fall when Killers was released to great acclaim, and Stone, who has picked up steam the last few months as more and more people saw Poor Things. This one is tough for me. Stone is one of my favorite actresses working today – her versatility is almost unmatched – and she was marvelous in Poor Things, a film I liked but didn’t love. I am kind of rooting for Gladstone as I love the underdog story and this would be a wonderful recognition for what may be the defining role of her career. It would also likely be the only award given to Killers, so I’m leaning that way heading into the ceremony, but whoever wins the SAG award tomorrow night is likely the front-runner.
Best Leading Actor
- Bradley Cooper – Maestro (4th nomination for Best Actor. 12 career nominations for directing, producing, writing and acting, including three this year for Maestro. No previous wins.)
- Colman Domingo – Rustin (1st nomination)
- Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers (2nd nomination, no previous wins)
- Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer (1st nomination)
- Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction (1st nomination)
This was the category that probably disappointed me the most when the nominations were announced, primarily because of the oversight of Leonardo DiCaprio in Killers of the Flower Moon. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again – we continue to take him for granted. His next project is starring in the new film from Paul Thomas Anderson, which I am already hoping brings PTA some (long overdue) Oscar recognition, and maybe another win for Leo. His spot was probably filled by Domingo for Rustin, a film that I thought was average, at best. And it’s safe to say that his nomination (like Bening’s) was a function of the high-powered campaign by Netflix. Let’s also acknowledge the Obama factor – Rustin was produced by the Obamas’ production company Higher Ground – and they are very good at Oscar campaigning.
Now, if the Academy overlooked Leo because they didn’t like his performance, I would also have chosen Andrew Scott, who was magnificent in All of Us Strangers, over Domingo. I didn’t cover that film in detail, and it’s a very unusual story, but it’s an acting showcase with Scott, Paul Mescal, Claire Foy, and Jamie Bell. I highly recommend it, but it might not be for everyone, so be sure to read the film synopsis before diving in – it’s now streaming on Hulu. As for Cooper, it’s sad to say that despite the Academy’s love of his work, he will likely have to wait another year to win one, whether it’s for acting, directing, producing or writing. We’ll see his day come.
As for the winner? Like Best Actress, this is shaping up to be a two person showdown between Murphy and Giamatti. A few months ago, I would have bet that Murphy had this sewn up, but there has been growing momentum for recognizing Giamatti, who is a beloved acting veteran in Hollywood. If we are rewarding the best performance, I’d go with Murphy, but we all know the Oscars have their moments where career recognition overrules the individual performance of that year. Al Pacino’s win for Scent of a Woman in 1992 over Denzel Washington in Malcolm X remains one of the biggest Oscar travesties. I honestly have no idea who will win this one, but I’m hoping it’s Murphy.
Best Director
- Justine Triet – Anatomy of a Fall (1st nomination)
- Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon (10th nomination for Best Director. 16 career nominations for directing, producing, and writing. One previous win (only one!!!) for directing The Departed.)
- Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer (2nd nomination for Best Director. 8 career nominations for directing, producing, and writing, including three this year for Oppenheimer. No previous wins.)
- Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things (2nd nomination for Best Director. 6 career nominations for directing, producing, and writing, including two this year for Poor Things. No previous wins.)
- Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest (1st nomination for Best Director. Also nominated this year as producer for the film’s Best Picture nomination.)
Included with the headline about Margot Robbie’s “snub” in Best Actress was the lack of recognition of Greta Gerwig for directing Barbie. Now, she is nominated (along with Noah Baumbach) for writing the screenplay and there is a chance they win, but the Adapted Screenplay category is LOADED, so it’s still a long-shot. Of course, there is no Barbie without Gerwig’s vision, but like Robbie, I think this is a function of a very strong movie year, as well as the increased diversity in the Academy’s international voting body, with two foreign-language films (Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest) recognized here. Also, the Top Gun: Maverick parallel applies here as well – Joseph Kosinski wasn’t nominated for Best Director last year, despite the film’s Best Picture nomination. When you have ten Best Picture nominees and only five director slots, there are some deserving candidates left out. Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Alexander Payne (The Holdovers), Celine Song (Past Lives) and even Todd Haynes (May December) would have been worthy nominees.
Could Scorsese win here? My heart says that the Academy could give Marty one last award as he nears the end of his career, but my head says differently. Despite the love for all of these nominees, I don’t see any other outcome here except Nolan – It’s his time. It’s been building for years, the Academy has slowly begun to appreciate his talents, he received major nominations for Inception (2010) and Dunkirk (2017), and this is the year they finally recognize him for directing his masterpiece. The brilliance of Oppenheimer is the culmination of Nolan’s vision and talents put on screen. It’s only fitting that he wins the Best Director Oscar.
Best Picture
When the Oscar season goes on for so long, you start to talk yourself into theories about how there could be an upset. Look no further than last year when I tried to convince myself (like an idiot) that Top Gun: Maverick could beat Everything Everywhere All at Once. Wishful thinking. You can’t win ‘em all, but at least my favorite movie of 2021 won Best Picture, even if I didn’t think it could pull off the upset. But at the end of the day, if you try too long to find an upset in the making, you could be missing the obvious. Let’s break these nominees into a few different tiers.
Happy To Be Here
- American Fiction
- Anatomy of a Fall
- Barbie
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Maestro
- Past Lives
While anything is possible, let’s not kid ourselves. These films generally fall in the category of “the nomination is the award,” especially movies by first-time directors (American Fiction and Past Lives), a first-time nominated director (Anatomy of a Fall), or the proverbial Charlie Brown trying to kick the football (Maestro’s Bradley Cooper). Just being nominated is an honor for this group. At least, that’s what they’ll tell themselves on the way to the ceremony.
Martin Scorsese happy to be here? Sad to say, in a loaded film year, that’s the case. If he were to win anything, it would be Best Director, but as I said above, I think it’s Nolan’s to lose. Now, with the Gerwig Best Director “snub,” there have been comparisons to 2012 when Argo won Best Picture after Ben Affleck failed to be nominated for Best Director. Some have said there could be rallying around Gerwig to carry Barbie to a Best Picture win. I think that’s a bridge too far. Make no mistake about it – she will win (at least one) Oscar in her career. The Academy loves her – all three of her films have been nominated for Best Picture and she received Best Screenplay nominations for each of them. Her time will come – it’s just not this year. Also, she is not one of the film’s producers so she technically wouldn’t win an Oscar for herself if Barbie somehow won Best Picture.
An Outside Chance
- The Holdovers
- Poor Things
Over the course of the Awards race, there were only two movies that were the answer to the question, “Can anyone beat Oppenheimer?” and that was The Holdovers and Poor Things. If either of these movies were to win, I’d be shocked, but they have a punchers’ chance, at least better than the previous films I referenced above.
A Surprise Winner from Out of Nowhere?
- The Zone of Interest
The last few weeks have seen a narrative forming – could The Zone of Interest win Best Picture? Frankly, I think this is just Oscar pundits running out of story ideas before March 10th. I also think journalists are bending over backwards trying to predict another Parasite surprise, where a foreign-language movie wins Best Picture. Make no mistake about it, The Zone of Interest will win Best International Film, but it’s not going to pull off the Parasite double play. I just don’t see it.
The Juggernaut
- Oppenheimer
Let’s not overthink it. When Oppenheimer premiered in theaters last July, it was hailed as the masterpiece from a director who has not made a bad movie. Its box-office performance (aided by the Barbenheimer phenomenon) was incredible, earning almost a billion dollars for a movie where people are predominantly talking in rooms about physics and politics. Yes, the box-office doesn’t influence Oscars, but it goes without saying that in a town where IP rules, it’s clear that Christopher Nolan is an IP on his own. People go out to see his movies because they know a Nolan film is an event. The critics agreed, lavishing praise on Oppenheimer from the beginning. Throughout the last six months of 2023, many films tried to take the crown – Killers of the Flower Moon, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest, Anatomy of a Fall – but none of them resonated as much as a film that not only is technically brilliant, but has messages about world politics that resonate today, some 80 years after the events of the movie. It may be a predictable win come Oscar night, but that doesn’t mean it’s not deserved.
That’s all for this week. I hope you enjoyed my Oscar preview. The ceremony is not until March 10th, so you have plenty of time to catch up on the nominated films. Most of them are already available at home, either on a streaming service or to rent on demand. Also, a number of the Best Picture nominees are still in theaters or will be re-released in theaters before the ceremony. So check out JustWatch.com to find where to watch them at home or Fandango to find a theater near you. If you missed my top twenty films of 2023, you can find them here and here. And if you are a movie sicko like me and want to see my top 100 films of 2023, you can find my list on Letterboxd here.
I’ll be back in a few weeks with my preview of the 2024 movie year. It looks a little bleak right now, but there are some promising titles on the horizon and Dune Part II is coming next week, so we have that going for us (he said with sarcasm.) Thanks for reading and if you’d like to be notified of future posts, you can subscribe below.