2024 Oscars Preview

February 21, 2025

There were numerous times over the last few weeks that I was wondering if it was still worth it to write way too many words about the upcoming Oscars, scheduled for Sunday March 2^nd.  After all, there is some really stupid, insane and scary shit going down every day that makes me wonder why I bother staying informed about what is going on in the world, at the risk of running through the streets screaming my head off.  Does anyone still care about silly awards shows?  Well, I guess you can’t immerse yourself in too much of the bullshit and you need to balance it out with the fun, right?  There’s still some fun in the world, right?  Right?

OK, let’s get back to movies.  Overall 2024 was a pretty good year.  Certainly not the heights of 2019 or even 2023, but still impressive, especially considering Hollywood was still dealing with the impact of the dual industry strikes.  2025 looks like a banger movie year, but more on that in two weeks, when I will cover my most anticipated films of the coming year. 

But, first the Academy Awards.  Unlike last year’s Oscars where we were on a steady march toward the coronation for Christopher Nolan and his five-star masterpiece Oppenheimer, this year’s race has been pretty open, especially for Best Picture.  Only in the last week do we seem to have a frontrunner, but even that one is not guaranteed.  The “favorite” has changed several times over the last few months, and there have been some gossipy scandals that range from mild to offensive that have thrown the race into chaos. 

The use of the dreaded “AI” briefly threatened the campaign of The Brutalist, but it seems to have dodged a lethal blow.  The same can be said for Anora, which had a few stories about director Sean Baker’s decision to not use an intimacy coordinator for the (at times) explicit movie, with the blessing of the film’s star, Mikey Madison.  This felt like a non-controversy that journalists tried way too hard to make into a big deal.  Best Actress nominee Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) had to apologize for appearing in blackface on a Brazilian television show almost twenty years ago.  And then there is the one that really blew up. 

Emilia Pérez star Karla Sofia Gascón’s reputation was decimated when old posts on Twitter (I refuse to use the new name given by its childish owner) surfaced that were offensive, racist and downright disgusting.  She’s been on a campaign to salvage her image since the story emerged, but she’s been sidelined by just about everyone associated with the film, which had the most nominations this year.  Now, she had no real chance to win Best Actress before this controversy, but the movie was in the mix for Best Picture (I refuse to believe it – more on that later), and consensus around Hollywood is that this scandal might be the final straw for the film’s campaign.

So, what’s the state of the race?  Well, the recent Producer Guild Awards (PGAs), Director Guild Awards (DGAs), Writers Guild Awards (WGAs), and BAFTAs (the British Oscars) may have crystalised the race a little bit, but there will likely be at least one or two surprises in the main categories come Oscar night.  What’s most exciting to me is that there are a number of first-time nominees this year, including 13 of the 20 total actors and all five Best Director nominees.  With only one previous winner among the major nominees, there will be a number of individuals whose lives will change on March 2^nd. 

Before we dive into this year’s Oscar preview, I was able to catch up on the last Best Picture nominee I had not been able to see yet.

A Compelling Story – I’m Still Here

When you go to a film festival, you inevitably have to make tough choices about your schedule.  There are multiple movies playing at the same time, and you also have to factor in time to get from one theater to the next and grab a quick bite to eat here and there.  This past year was my third trip to the Philadelphia Film Festival and like the previous two years, I had a few conflicts to work through in making my schedule.  I try to prioritize films that I am very excited to see that may not get a wide theatrical release for several months, smaller movies that might fly under the radar, and I try to take a few chances on something unusual.  This past year I was fortunate to catch The Brutalist and Nickel Boys, two Best Picture nominees that didn’t get a wide release until three months later.  I also saw Flow, the wonderful animated movie that is up for Best Animated Film and Best International Film at this year’s Oscars. 

On one of the festival days, I decided to see Maria, the Angelina Jolie-led biopic of opera singer Maria Callas, scheduled for release on Netflix a few weeks later.  I thought it was a decent movie, with a great performance by Jolie.  There’s a reason she was a Best Actress contender this year, although she didn’t ultimately receive a nomination.  Now, normally, I wouldn’t bother with a movie I could see so soon after the festival, but since Netflix doesn’t give their films a wide theatrical release, I knew this would be my only chance to see Maria on the big screen.  The previous year I was fortunate to see Bradley Cooper’s Maestro, another Netflix movie, at the festival and I was glad to see it on a theatrical screen and not on my television.  Why am I bringing this up?

Well, after my screening of Maria, I ran into one of my festival friends in line for The Brutalist.  I’ve been fortunate to see the same people each year and it’s great to catch up and chat throughout the festival.  He had just seen I’m Still Here and said he thought it was the best film he’d seen all year.  He hosts a movie podcast and when he shared his year-end top ten list a few weeks ago, it was still number one for him.  He knew what he was talking about because I’m Still Here was nominated for three Oscars, including Best Picture, Best International Film, and Best Actress for Fernanda Torres, who won the Golden Globe for her performance, in a surprising win.

The film takes place during the early 1970s when Brazil was under a dictatorial regime, following a military coup.  Torres plays Eunice, the wife of a former congressman who is brought in for questioning by military officers without returning.  She is faced with caring for her children, while wondering if she will ever see her husband again.  Eunice is also brought in and held captive, along with one of her daughters, constantly interrogated and pressured to identify people who are radicals operating against the government.  Torres is magnificent in this true story as someone who never gives up in the search for the truth about what happened to her husband, while maintaining courageous strength and resolve under incredible pressure.  It was also quite terrifying to think about living in a country where the government punishes you for questioning authority.  A little too close to home these days. 

This film also features one of my favorite true-story tactics during the closing credits, where we see pictures of the real individuals that were featured throughout the story.  I’m glad I was able to finally see I’m Still Here in a theater, even if it was four months after I could have caught it in Philadelphia.  Next year, I need to follow Craig’s advice more closely.  I’m Still Here is now playing in theaters and should be available to rent from home in the coming weeks.

Let’s move on to this year’s nominations.

 Best Supporting Actor

• Yura Borisov – Anora (1^st nomination)
• Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain (1^st nomination)
• Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown (4^th nomination, no previous wins)
• Guy Pearce – The Brutalist (1^st nomination)
• Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice (1^st nomination)

We’re going to start with what will probably be the easiest award of the night to predict, just like last year’s winner, Robert Downey, Jr.  Through all of the major precursors, Kieran Culkin has won just about every award for his performance in A Real Pain.  Now, I liked this film just fine.  It wasn’t anything groundbreaking to me, and Culkin was really good.  But I just couldn’t get over how similar his performance was to his role as Roman Roy on Succession.  Speaking of which – a nice little tidbit in this category is Culkin facing off against Strong, who played his older brother on the HBO series.  All of the nominees in this category were very good, but if I had my choice, I’d go with Pearce for his incredible performance in The Brutalist.  But don’t expect any surprises – Culkin is winning this one.

Best Supporting Actress

• Monica Barbaro – A Complete Unknown (1^st nomination)
• Ariana Grande – Wicked: Part One (1^st nomination)
• Felicity Jones – The Brutalist (2^nd nomination, no previous wins)
• Isabella Rossellini – Conclave (1^st nomination)
• Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez (1^st nomination)

For most of the awards season, it looked like Saldaña would run away with this Oscar, and she seems to have dodged the recent Emilia Pérez scandal, winning Best Supporting Actress at many of the precursor awards.  I thought Grande was a hoot in Wicked: Part One and Jones and Rossellini were also impressive in their films.  Interesting tidbit about the latter – her nomination for Conclave is the first Oscar recognition for the 72 year-old actress, who comes from Hollywood royalty.  Her father was Italian director Roberto Rossellini and her mother was Ingrid Bergman, who won a late career Oscar for one of my all-time favorites, 1974’s Murder on the Orient Express.  Many thought Rossellini would follow in her mother’s Oscar footsteps this year, but that doesn’t look to be the case.  If I had my choice, I’d give the award to Barbaro, considering the high degree of difficulty in playing Joan Baez, including doing her own singing and guitar playing.  Oh, she also more than held her own against Chalamet’s dynamite portrayal of Bob Dylan.  Unless the Emilia Pérez scandal taints her campaign, look for Saldaña to take this one.

Best Leading Actor

• Adrien Brody – The Brutalist (2^nd nomination, previously won for The Pianist in 2002)
• Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown (2^nd nomination, no previous wins)
• Colman Domingo – Sing Sing (2^nd nomination, no previous wins)
• Ralph Fiennes – Conclave (3^rd nomination, no previous wins)
• Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice (1^st nomination)

The favorite for this award has swung a lot over the last few months.  Fiennes looked like a possibility in a potential “it’s his time” recognition award, much like he was passed over for Best Supporting Actor 30 years ago for Schindler’s List in favor of Tommy Lee Jones, who was the “It’s his time” winner that year.  Then Domingo took the lead for his sensitive portrayal as a convict leading a theater troupe in Sing Sing, but I don’t think enough people saw that movie, and he faded.  As for Stan, I’m thrilled he got a nomination as he’s a great actor.  As much as I was impressed by his performance as the future “Asshole-in-Chief,” I liked his other film, A Different Man, a lot more.  Unfortunately, I don’t think he can win – for him, the nomination is the win. 

This one has come down to a death-match between Brody and Chalamet.  Brody has won almost every award leading up to the Oscars, so he seems like a lock.  But I wouldn’t be surprised to hear Timmy’s name called out.  Dylan is a music legend and A Complete Unknown is the kind of movie Hollywood loves.  Let’s not forget Rami Malek won Best Actor for Bohemian Rhapsody (it’s a travesty he beat Bradley Cooper that year, but my point remains.)  Chalamet has been running the perfect Oscar campaign, and wouldn’t it be fun to see such a talented actor get this recognition?  Interesting tidbit – if he wins, he would break the record for youngest Best Actor winner, set in 2002 by (you guessed it) Adrien Brody.  This one is a toss-up.

Best Leading Actress

• Cynthia Erivo – Wicked: Part One (2^nd nomination, no previous wins)
• Karla Sofia Gascón – Emilia Pérez (1^st nomination)
• Mikey Madison – Anora (1^st nomination)
• Demi Moore – The Substance (1^st nomination)
• Fernanda Torres – I’m Still Here (1^st nomination)

Let’s get the drama out of the way.  In fact, there is very little drama if Gascón’s despicable behavior will impact her ability to win.  She was not seen as a legitimate candidate, even before the controversy, given the competition of her fellow nominees.  Erivo would complete the EGOT with a win, but she’s also not seen as a frontrunner.  Torres is a nice story given the late emergence of I’m Still Here as an awards contender and her win at the Golden Globes.  Also, her mother was an Oscar nominee twenty-five years ago, but a win here would be pretty surprising, not because of the blackface controversy, but because I think the film is a little too obscure to pull off a high-profile win like this.  I would love to see it upset Emilia Pérez in Best International Film, but I think that’s also unlikely. 

Like Best Actor, this looks like a two person contest between Madison and Moore.  It’s the battle of recognizing the ingénue, which the Academy loves to do (see Marisa Tomei, Angelina Jolie, and Jennifer Lawrence, to name a few) or the veteran actress who has never been nominated in her 40 year career.  Moore spoke eloquently in her acceptance speech at the Golden Globes about how she was never taken seriously in her career, and how much the recognition for this film means to her.  Oh, it helps that the movie is about how older women are thrown aside in the entertainment industry for the younger option.  Academy voters eat that shit up, so I’m expecting Moore to win, but Madison just won at the BAFTAs, so it could be her night.  This one is another toss-up.

Best Director

• Sean Baker – Anora (1^st nomination)
• Brady Corbet – The Brutalist (1^st nomination)
• James Mangold – A Complete Unknown (1^st nomination)
• Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez (1^st nomination)
• Coralie Fargeat – The Substance (1^st nomination)

A pretty rare occurrence here – all of these directors are up for this award for the first time, and they are also in contention for Best Picture as a producer on their film, and for writing or co-writing their Oscar-nominated screenplay.  This gives you an indication as to which movies are really in contention for Best Picture.  More on that in a minute.

Before we discuss a winner, we have to acknowledge the major snub of Denis Villeneuve for Dune: Part Two (what did this guy do to piss off so many Academy voters?) and minor snub for Edward Berger, the director of Conclave.  And while I thought RaMell Ross delivered an incredible film as the director of Nickel Boys, the choice he made in telling that story in a first-person perspective format probably turned off too many voters in this category.  How Audiard (who is apparently a French film legend) received a nod for Emilia Pérez over any of these other directors (especially Villeneuve) is an absolute joke.  OK, rant over.

If you had asked me a few weeks ago, I would have said this one is Corbet’s to lose, but Baker recently won at the DGAs, which is a big predictor for Best Director at the Oscars.  The sheer audacity of Corbet’s vision and execution in making The Brutalist is the kind of craft that the voters are inclined to reward in this category, so I was surprised Baker beat him at the DGAs.  I will also say that I don’t think Corbet has done himself any favors in his recent press tour ahead of the voting deadline.  He is a very talented director and let’s just say that he’s not afraid to talk about how talented he is.  He may have turned off voters who are looking for a little humility, and Baker is reportedly beloved in Hollywood.  I think Baker wins this one in a tight vote.

Best Picture

For the first time in a long time, there is no consensus favorite, but after a win at the PGAs and Baker’s win at the DGAs, it seems like Anora may have taken the lead.  But before we pick a winner, let’s look at all of the nominees, broken down in a few different categories.

Happy To Be Here

• Dune: Part Two
• I’m Still Here
• Nickel Boys
• The Substance

If you read my year-end series, then you know where my vote lies.  Dune: Part Two was my favorite film of 2024 and a complete cinematic achievement.  Sadly, the Academy doesn’t seem to love science-fiction movies, so it has no shot.  The other films in this group also appear to be at the bottom of the list – happy to receive the recognition, but probably not going to win.  This is a good spot to pause and admire the incredible five nominations for The Substance, a gonzo body horror movie.  The fact that a film like this can land nominations not just for makeup, but for Coralie Fargeat’s screenplay and direction gives me hope that studios will continue to take chances when greenlighting future movies.

An Outside Chance

• A Complete Unknown
• Wicked: Part One

Deep down, I don’t think either of these movies will win, but it wouldn’t be a complete shock if one of them did.  Wicked: Part One is more of a popcorn blockbuster that has been (probably unfairly) compared to last year’s Barbie – the nominations are the reward, don’t expect too much more.  Besides, the Academy might take a hard look at the film’s sequel for further recognition next year. 

One film that has been getting a quiet buzz toward an upset win in recent weeks is A Complete Unknown, mostly due to how Best Picture is determined – ranked choice voting.  In this process, voters have to rank the nominees in order from 1 – 10.  So, while it matters who gets the most #1 votes, it also matters how well you do in slots 2-4.  If a film is polarizing (and voters hate it), they could put it at #10, which could torpedo its chances of winning.  A Complete Unknown is the type of movie that everyone seems to at least like a lot, if not love.  I don’t think it’s a strong enough case to beat the true favorites, but it could happen.

I Don’t Believe It

• Emilia Pérez

This could be 100% my bias against this film that I didn’t like and continue to remain baffled why it has received so much adulation throughout this award season.  Not to mention 13 Oscar nominations, tied for second most in Academy Awards history.  Give me a break.  When you read the prognosticators, they write that this is one of the favorites to win, but I don’t buy it.  To me, it’s the opposite case of A Complete Unknown.  A high number of voters will put Emilia Pérez at the bottom of their ballot, given how divisive it is.  Of course, I thought that could happen two years ago with Everything, Everywhere, All at Once and we all know how that turned out.  I might be irrationally angry on Oscar night.

The True Contenders

• Anora
• The Brutalist
• Conclave

Conclave fits into the same category as A Complete Unknown, a movie that could build consensus where all voters generally (at least) liked it.  It’s also the type of film we historically saw win Best Picture – a drama aimed at adults, with excellent performances from well-known actors, and a great production design, costumes, and score.  All of that being said, its chances took a hit when Edward Berger didn’t receive a Best Director nod, as it indicated less enthusiasm for Conclave than previously thought.  Now, that’s not necessarily a death blow (as recently as three years ago, CODA won Best Picture without a nomination for director Sian Heder), but Berger’s lack of recognition definitely hurt.

So, it looks like it’s down to The Brutalist vs. Anora.  Much like the race for Best Director, I would have thought The Brutalist had the edge a few weeks ago, especially after it won Best Drama at the Golden Globes, and Anora was shut out that night.  But in the last week, Anora has taken the frontrunner status after Baker won Best Director at the DGAs and Best Screenplay at the WGAs and the picture was awarded Best Film at the PGAs.  Interestingly, Baker could personally win four awards at the Oscars, as he is also nominated for editing Anora.  That would be quite an accomplishment. 

As we head down the final stretch, Anora has the lead, but I don’t think it’s a certainty.  As my favorite podcast host pointed out, there is only one movie that won at the DGAs, PGAs, and WGAs, but failed to go on to win Best Picture.  That was 2005 when Crash (considered one of the worst Best Picture winners ever) upset Brokeback Mountain.  Could that happen again?  As long as the last film’s award goes to anything but Emilia Pérez, I’ll be fine with the outcome.

That’s all for this week.  I hope you enjoyed my Oscar preview.  The ceremony is not until March 2^nd,  so you have plenty of time to catch up on the nominated films.  Many of them are already available at home, either on a streaming service or to rent on demand.  Also, most of the Best Picture nominees are playing in theaters this week, for one last chance to see them before the ceremony.  As a reminder, you can check out JustWatch.com to find where to watch them at home or Fandango to find a theater near you.  And if you missed my top ten films of 2024, you can find them here and here.  Lastly, if you are a movie sicko like me and want to see my top 100 films of 2024, you can find my list on Letterboxd here. I’ll be back in two weeks with my reaction to the Oscar ceremony and a preview of the 2025 movie year.  Thanks for reading and if you’d like to be notified of future posts, you can subscribe below.