4 Days

October 30, 2020

For as long as I can remember, I have been a numbers guy.  Always liked math.  Took an accounting class in high school, loved it (I know, yuck), then went on to major in Accounting in college.  Before you knew it, I had spent over twenty years in some facet of accounting / finance as a career.  My family and close friends know this about me.  I manage the finances in our household.  Whenever I go out with my friends, I’m always the one to figure out the tip and how much we all owe.  I always keep score when we play golf, although some of that is the control freak gene I have, and I can cheat, of course.  Just kidding (as far as they know).  Whenever I would face challenging times at work, I tried to find something to look forward to – getting past a major deliverable or a big Board meeting, getting to a vacation, or a weekend away.  When I found a day counter app for my phone and sent my friends a screenshot that we only had 187 days until our summer golf weekend, I think they worried I needed some help.  I may or may not have had a similar countdown going when I left the Corporate world a year and a half ago.

Twenty-one weeks ago, I posted my thoughts on my frustrations with the level of hate in this country and I counted the number of days until November 3^rd.  This has been on my mind a lot lately, piling up more and more each day as it seems like every day we see a week’s worth of news, where we take a deep breath before going to bed saying “What DIDN’T happen today?”  I recently saw a funny cartoon that summed up my feelings exactly.  Two people were walking together and one said to the other “My desire to be well-informed is currently at odds with my desire to remain sane.”  Truer words could not have been said.

The concept of counting days hit me over the head recently when I was thinking about the year 2020.  For several months ago, we’ve been reading, writing, saying (screaming!) “I can’t wait until this year is over.  Bring on 2021.”  Nice in concept, but over the last few months, I’ve been asking myself, “What really changes on January 1, 2021?”  Other than a symbolic turning of the page on a calendar (well, we don’t really have those anymore anyway), what will change in 2021?  What exactly do we see on the horizon that is going to improve the situation in our country? 

It’s Been Almost A Year

We have been dealing with a worldwide pandemic for almost a year.  Most of the rest of the world has figured out how to find the compromise of living their lives safely until an effective vaccine is in wide distribution, yet in this country we have been spinning in neutral for months.  Our economy has been battered, tens of millions of people are still out work, the federal stimulus packages that kept people hanging on for a few months have expired, most of the federal government seems to have given up on passing anything new, furloughs have turned into layoffs as businesses are burning through their cash.  (Remember my early post about this being all about cash flow?  That’s where we are right now).  And despite one person’s (very loud, obnoxious) opinion, the stock market is not an indicator of a strong economy.  Yes, the stock market returns this year have been surprisingly strong given the pandemic (although based on this week, it looks like investors are coming back to reality), but that is only one metric.  The economy is driven by consumer spending, which comes from wages, earned by people who have jobs.  And we have a whole lot of people in this country who are either unemployed or underemployed.  If all of these events weren’t creating enough stress in the system, we are also facing racial tensions not seen in fifty years.  The hate and divisiveness has increased exponentially in the last decade and is at an all-time high. 

At the risk of you checking out here because this is going to be very depressing, I’d ask that you hang in there for a few minutes.

So, if changing the calendar in 62 days (see what I did there?) isn’t going to “miraculously” make things better, what will?  It’s not simple, but there’s a starting point – a change in leadership.

I don’t have any experience in politics.  In fact, it’s my least favorite topic.  I think both parties have major problems.  Most presidential elections, I decide which candidate I dislike the least, cast my vote, see who won, and go on living my life.  If the candidate I voted for didn’t win, I’d shrug it off and say “well, how much will the person who is President actually impact MY life?”  Four years ago, I had a really hard time convincing myself to believe that phrase, but again, I went on living my life.  Now?  Are you freaking kidding me?  Whose life hasn’t been disrupted?  And I’m a white male.  I’m not part of a gender, race, or sexual orientation that might feel threatened by the level of hate in this country.  Is it all the responsibility of that one person?  No, there are millions of people who are driving this throughout our country.  But the person who is supposed to set the right example, who is supposed to set the tone for the country, who is supposed to act like an adult, is doing the exact opposite.

While I have no experience in politics, one thing I have experience in is spotting a bullshit artist.  You see, when you work in corporate America, you work with all sorts of people.  Occasionally (hopefully rarely), you come upon someone who just gives you a funny vibe while working with them.  I am usually a pretty good read of people.  If I am struggling to get along with someone, or am really confused by a decision or an action, I tend to look for a motivation for that behavior.  A few years ago, one of my closest friends at work was put in a very challenging situation while we worked together.  She was asked to take over the position of her boss when her boss resigned unexpectedly.  Shortly thereafter, we were thrust into a major project, which was very stressful.  It required an extraordinary level of teamwork across a large group of finance leaders, who were not exactly working at a high-function level (to be more accurate, we were like a dysfunctional family).  But we all reached deep down, put aside our individual goals and petty differences, we offered to help each other whenever we could lend a hand, and we got the job done.  It brought us closer together and was one of the best team experiences I ever had.  When we got past a major hurdle in the project, I reflected on the experience and why it went well.  One of the reasons was that friend of mine focused on one thing – doing her job the best she possibly could.  Other people in similar situations would be focused on getting the next job to move up the career ladder, asking “what’s in it for me?” instead of “how can I help the team?”  Ask yourself which question the resident of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue is asking himself every day.

This Year Is Different

In most election years, you hear the arguments “All politicians are crooks.  They all lie.  None of them are likable.  I wish we could throw them all out and start over.”  Now, there are some days that I wholeheartedly agree with those sentiments.  I am also a realist.  I tend to look at a problem and say “Every problem has a solution.”  Will kicking out the current holder of the job of President out on his ass solve every problem on day one?  Of course not, but it’s a step in the right direction.  Do I agree with everything the other candidate stands for?  Of course not – that’s not reasonable.  Am I concerned about his age and ability to serve out his term?  Yes, but to be honest, I have a hell of a lot more confidence in the team he will build around him than continuing to live in the current circus we’ve been experiencing the last four years (especially the last seven months). 

Most elections are defined by policy differences on topics like taxes, health care, foreign affairs, immigration, climate change, reproductive rights, and civil rights (which should be a no-brainer in 2020, but somehow agreement on treating each other equally can’t be agreed on in this country).  While there may be differences in opinion on these topics, to me the gap between the importance of the pandemic and ANY other topic is enormous.  If you can’t handle the most important issue facing the country (and every other country on the planet), why should you get to decide the best course of action for any other issue, especially when you’ve had almost four years to prove it?

If you’re still thinking, “Well, has it really been that bad?  Aren’t all politicians bad?  Could anyone else have done a better job?” I’m going to share two pieces of media with you.  The first is this article that describes the timeline of the administration’s “handling” of the pandemic.  We all lived through it, so while it shouldn’t come as a surprise, when you add it up, the level of incompetence is staggering.  Granted, the article was published by Mother Jones, which is a left-leaning publication, but it’s hard to argue that this isn’t grounds for termination.  The second is a documentary that just premiered last week on Hulu called Totally Under Control.  It was directed by Alex Gibney, one of the finest documentary filmmakers working today and reiterates the same lack of leadership.  If you don’t subscribe to Hulu, the distributor of the film is making it free from now until the election on YouTube here. 

If those two pieces of information don’t convince you, I don’t know what could.  Well, maybe it’s just a simple quote by a former President during a run for office some forty years ago.  He asked “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?”  Now that answer could differ wildly depending on every individual’s personal situation, impacted by factors that have nothing to do with who is President.  However, if you made a slight modification by saying “Is the country better off today than it was four years ago?” wouldn’t the answer be pretty clear?  Whenever I got a new job as a manager, my boss made it clear to me on day one – “Your job is to make your department better than it was when you started there.”  Pretty clear, right?  By the way, the President that said that quote was a Republican.

Where Do We Go From Here?

So, it’s been a long twenty-one weeks since my last post on the topic of the election.   I’ve been following the polls (way too) closely, but of course after four years ago, no one trusts the polls.  This reminds me of being a Red Sox fan prior to 2004.  It didn’t matter what the game situation was, you didn’t count the victory until the game was over.  And we all know that the polls are meaningless.  There is only one scoreboard that counts and that’s the one after all the votes (ALL THE VOTES) are counted.

So, let’s say we get a change in leadership.  Will it make a difference?  I say, “How can it not make a difference?”  I am confident that if the challenger wins, there will be a plan put in place to turn things around.  The current occupant of the job certainly doesn’t have a plan – if he did, we would be executing it right now, right?

I am not going to pretend to know that the right course of action is.  In addition to not being a politician, I have made it clear in this blog that I am not a scientist, doctor, or epidemiologist.  But I have experience as a leader and have learned that communication is one of the most important traits of an effective leader.  It seems to me that the first order of business is a national address to the country with the President and a few experts to level with every citizen of the country.  This is a big deal speech – on the level of the JFK Cuban Missile Crisis press conference.  State the facts.  Tell them where we are.  “I know you’re not happy – we’re all not happy.  Millions of you have lost your jobs.  You’re struggling to pay your bills and put food on the table.  We can fix the economy, we can bring jobs back.  But first we have to fix the virus.  We can do that, but we have to do a few things to solve the problem, and most importantly, we all have to do it together.” 

Dispel the myths that have been turned into misinformation on social media:

• “They said masks don’t work in March, now we have to wear them?” – Yes, learning more facts every day informs new thinking and shapes different decisions.  That’s how science works. 
• “It’s not serious.  I heard only old people die.  Only 6% of the deaths were really from the virus.” – That story was wrong.  It was a gross misinterpretation of a data point that was turned into a false headline.  And even if you survive it, you can have some pretty bad health consequences.  Let me tell you about “long-haulers.”
• “Cases are up because testing is up.”  Maybe it’s because I’m a numbers guy, but this is the most egregious statement that has been made over and over again, and is a perfect example of “If you tell a lie often enough, people will believe it.”  Compare where we were in May (when testing started to take off) vs. where we are now.  Show how the case count is increasing at a faster rate than the testing.  If cases were up only because of testing, the rate of increase would be the same.  Note how hospitalizations and the infection rate are up.  These are all bad signs.  Compare New York to South Dakota.  See how New York’s testing has increased significantly but their case counts are relatively stable?  See how their infection rate is relatively stable?  See how South Dakota is the exact opposite?  Show clear charts and statistics and walk every American through the correct data and tell them what it means, in a clear and easy to understand way.

Be honest with the American people, but take the high road. 

• “You haven’t been told the whole story.  My predecessor was worried about one thing – getting re-elected.  Guess what?  I won the election – I’m not worried about the election.  I’m focused on one thing – improving the health and well-being of everyone in this country.  That is my only motivation right now.
• Wear a mask – is it 100% foolproof?  No, but it works.  Think of it like a seatbelt – you are better with it than without it.  Help your neighbor.  It’s not hard.  Do it for your fellow American.  It doesn’t make you weak – it shows you care.  What’s wrong with that?  It’s like stopping at a Stop sign.  It helps keep you safe and it helps keep your fellow citizen safe. 
• Do your best to avoid crowds – I know you feel like it infringes on your freedoms, but we need to make sacrifices right now.  You’ve heard  about the greatest generation that survived World War II.  They sacrificed far more than what we are asking of all of you, for a much longer time. 
• Businesses may be impacted for a period of time, but we are going to get you financial relief quickly.
• I understand you’re frustrated – we all are.  But if we take some steps seriously for a short period of time, we can get through this.  This isn’t about being a Democrat or Republican.  It’s about being an American.  Let’s show the rest of the world we can do this.”

The current occupant of the job doesn’t have it in him to do this.  The challenger does. 

Is he perfect?  No. 

But, we don’t need perfect – we just need better.

Every path forward starts with one step.

Election Day is only 4 days away.  We’ve already made it 1,452 days since the last election.  We can make it the rest of the way and make it better in this country. 

Don’t lose hope.

Thank you for reading.