April 10, 2020
Back when I was working, one of my blind spots was cynicism and it reared its ugly head when I was especially stressed. I would fly off the handle, exaggerate problems and think the worst would always happen. Luckily, when things got bad, my manager would help me see the errors in my thinking and even one time told me to “knock it off – you’re not helping the team.” I thought of this experience this morning after trying to figure out how to finish this week’s blog post. Throughout this week, I had an idea of what I wanted to write about, but by the time I sat down to write on Thursday, I fired off about 2,000 words of pretty pissed off emotions. So, now I am back to rethink, rewrite and go forward.
What was I pissed off about? Well, this was a rollercoaster week for me as I continue to digest the troubling trend of bad news that emerges each day. After posting last week’s blog on Friday (which I was lukewarm about – not one of my best, but ok enough), I woke up to the news on Saturday that our governor stated in his daily press conference that the measures currently being enforced in Connecticut could last for months. I got very frustrated thinking about the impact of that potential scenario. Update: Yesterday, he announced he was extending the closure of schools and non-essential businesses until at least May 20th, but thankfully our Education Commissioner committed to not canceling graduation, even if plans need to be modified. That (and my wife’s delicious homemade cannoli dip) were this week’s moments of happiness.
Let me pause and tell you what I am not talking about with extensions of our new temporary normal: Sports returning (yeah, would be nice, but in the grand scheme of things, who cares?); Going to the movies (I love movies, but I have a long list to watch at home online); Being bored (nope, I’m all set there – plenty to do to keep me busy); Going out to restaurants or stores that are closed (Impact on me – none. Impact on others – we’ll get to that); Impact on the stock market (short-term market trading will make zero sense, so it’s not worth worrying about now); Impact on our family (all things considered, we’re thankfully fine. Could it be better? Of course, but it could be a hell of a lot worse.)
So, what am I worried about? It’s the enormous socio-economic impact this crisis will have on millions of people across the country. Am I saying shutting the country down was a bad idea? Absolutely not – it was the right thing to do. Should we flip a switch and undo what’s been done the last few weeks? Absolutely not – that will create a public health crisis in parts of the country that could make some problems a lot worse. But I am a planner (by nature and for a while, by profession) and I’m a numbers guy, so I can’t help but look at the financial news and worry about what it will mean for weeks, months, and years to come for so many people. So, I can’t help but think about what comes next and ask how this could (or should) work.
In my post about leadership two weeks ago, I wrote about the critical aspect of what we will be facing in this country – it is all about cash flow. This is the most important financial measure from the largest companies all the way down to individual workers. For companies who were not heavily impacted (only a few industries), they will likely be fine, and some may even thrive if their business has increased. For companies that had to shut down immediately, if they have large overhead (fixed costs) and/or were highly leveraged (high amounts of debt), things will likely unravel very fast. The Federal stimulus packages will certainly help, but will likely not be enough, and may be too late. Most of the impacted workers were likely living month to month or paycheck to paycheck. With the enormous income inequality in this country, we will see a disproportionate impact on lower income families and given their vulnerability at the beginning of this shutdown, it will likely happen quickly.
You may think that I am only worried about finances and not people’s health. No, I am not one to say that this is just like the flu – you only have to read a few stories about the conditions in the hardest hit areas of the country and the world to see that this is very serious. And I don’t think it’s particularly helpful to compare the statistics to other diseases, acts of terrorism or wars. This is a new crisis and it’s not meaningful to make those comparisons, despite what the media wants to do for clicks and ratings. Unfortunately, the testing in the United States could be described as (at best) a disaster, so it creates a situation where we don’t have accurate data and when we do see data, we can read counterpoints as to why that data may be misleading. The mortality rate is so high (but the data doesn’t include people who may have been infected but didn’t know it, or can’t get tested, so the death rate is overstated); The projected deaths are nowhere near as high as they were originally predicted (but that’s because we shut down the country, so it’s actually helped create this result). There are countless other examples. And once again, I have consistently been frustrated with the media coverage, trying to sift through the political agendas and alarmist headlines to get to the facts to make my own opinion. Those of you in my age bracket may chuckle when I tell you that I have been thinking about the song Dirty Laundry by Don Henley, which came out in 1982, but is as relevant as ever.
So, our data on this is pretty bad. But do you know what we have good data on? Jobs. In the last three weeks, over 16 million people applied for unemployment benefits. That implies an unemployment rate of at least 10% (the next official number won’t be published until early May). Those are staggering numbers in less than a month and both of those numbers figure to get worse in the coming weeks as layoffs and furloughs are expected to increase. And that’s just people who have lost their job. There are others who have had pay cuts, others who are trying to still do their job while caring for children at home, teachers who have been put in a very tough position of trying to teach online, people who are bravely going to work at grocery stores, pharmacies, gas stations and other professions to keep our lives moving forward. And of course, the health care community workers who are fighting this battle each and every day. I can only imagine the mental health toll this crisis will take on this country over the next several months.
So, what happens next?
It’s hard to say when, how and at what speed things should start to unwind, but I have a few thoughts. (I’ll remind you I am not a certified expert in any of these areas, these are just one person’s opinions, which you are welcome to disagree with). I am strongly against any sort of “national reopening of the country.” I don’t believe in stunts so people in Washington D.C. can take victory laps. Quite frankly, at this point, my expectations are so low for that group of individuals, they can just quietly keep writing checks to the state governments, hospitals, individuals, and businesses, and I’d be fine. (Of course, that creates a serious problem with deficit spending and our national debt, but one problem at a time, I guess).
I feel pretty strongly that this needs to be solved locally for one important reason – health care is a local issue. Throughout our country, there are so many variables that impact people’s health (demographics, living conditions, underlying health conditions) that there can be no “one size fits all” national answer. The answer for New York City and New Orleans will be vastly different than Bismarck, North Dakota or Des Moines, Iowa. And we will likely see hotspots at different times across the country over the next several months. And some of these hotspots may last longer than others. I’d like to see the governors of each state determine what to do best, with input from the federal government on guidelines. Yes, certain states will need to work closely together. We saw this early on when the governors of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut (smartly) decided to work together, given the high levels of travel among the citizens of each of the three states. This could help alleviate the challenge of travel between states, which could prove problematic.
States are going to have to rely on data as best they can. Would it be nice to have a clean set of data on every citizen to determine who has the virus, who has the antibodies to show they have already had it and are (hopefully) immune from getting it again, and who hasn’t been sick yet? Of course, but the testing capabilities do not exist, and will not exist for a long period of time. And the timeline for a vaccine looks like it will take longer than we can wait. So, it may be messy and unfortunately, there are going to be mistakes made. I liked what I was reading about some countries in Europe starting to experiment with opening some businesses for a period of time with restrictions in place, monitoring the results, and then expanding on those actions if warranted. Does that mean we open up the country for sporting events and concerts? As much as some people would like to use an event like that for a “Mission Accomplished” moment, I don’t see the value. If we’re talking about jobs and cash flow, as my former boss used to say, “The juice is not worth the squeeze.”
Instead, I’d like to see states leverage the framework of “essential businesses” and maybe classify businesses into tiers or categories with different restrictions as we move from week to week. What should the restrictions be? I’m not nearly qualified enough to answer those questions, but I would think state health officials could figure out a plan with guidance from the federal government, as we get more data each day. Will it be perfect? Of course not – it will be messy at times, but it will help people and businesses ease back into earning a living. It won’t be easy and it won’t be without risks, but we live with risks every day. Let’s go back to the original goal of “flattening the curve” – the theory was to spread out the impact of people getting sick over a longer period of time to minimize the burden on the health care system. The goal was never to shut things down until no one ever gets sick ever again. We will have to work toward a balance.
Could something like this work?
I don’t know – I’m worried about what will be asked of people in this country and how some people will react. What has already been asked of people, and what will be required of people over the next several months will be jarring to some and will require compromises on people’s lifestyles, religious practices, and what some will argue are their “civil liberties.” There have been references to what this country has gone through during the Great Depression and World War II. But are we galvanized enough in this country to rally around one common cause and will each person be willing to put their community’s interest ahead of their own? Will people be willing to be tested and cleared before going back to work? Will people be willing to have their temperature taken before entering a building and be told to go home if they have a fever? What if they are told they must quarantine in a fever clinic for two weeks without their family? What if they need to be part of a nationwide data tracking system to monitor who has been infected? Apple and Google just announced a new project to use Bluetooth-based technology to determine contact tracing of the virus. If these practices are necessary to survive, will people compromise and comply for the greater good, or will they take their state to court for violating their civil liberties to make a political statement? When I see people rallying around businesses and people in trouble, I get encouraged that people can come together to solve a problem. But then I get discouraged when I see people choosing an inopportune time to argue the second amendment in court because a store was deemed “non-essential.” Unfortunately, this country has become very divided over the last decade. Side note: Contrary to popular belief, the divide in this country didn’t start on November 8, 2016, but admittedly, it has gotten worse since then. If you want to see a great program describing what has happened the last decade, I highly recommend Frontline’s The Divided States of America – You can find it on PBS.org. Yes, things have gotten worse, but I am looking for hope and perhaps it will take a pandemic event like this to bring the right set of behaviors together under one common goal.
When do we act? This is the toughest part, mostly because we don’t have perfect data. Unfortunately, we don’t even have good data. But sometimes you can’t wait until you have all the information to make decisions – that’s part of leadership. Taking in all of the information you have, getting advice from your team of subject matter experts, weighing the risks of doing something (or the risk of doing nothing), and moving forward. The time is not today, and maybe it’s not in a few weeks. But if it’s a few months, I really worry about the damage done and the recovery time for those who are impacted.
Moving Forward
So, the beginning of the week was not good – feelings of anger, hopelessness and cynicism. I’m continuing to look for the positives, as hard as they are to see. We may be seeing the positive impacts of our social distancing in bending the curve of new cases and new hospitalizations, but the death toll is tragic and way too high. But maybe there is a glimmer of hope. We are by no means out of the woods, but perhaps in the near future, we can start to unwind some of these measures and move forward. Getting back to “normal” (however that is defined in the future) is too far away to worry about. Let’s focus on trying to turn things around, one step at a time.
I’ll close this week by recommending a few resources I have relied on the last few days to stay informed without the vitriol. Two good interviews on “The Ted Interview” podcast: The first was with a political theorist (who knew that was a job?) named Danielle Allen who talked about the technology needs that could help restart the economy and some of these difficult choices we will need to make. The second was with Ray Dalio, the head of Bridgewater Associates, the largest hedge fund in the world. Ray has a very informative, but easy to understand, way of thinking about the economy and he gave his perspective on what we have seen and what is likely to come. Another resource that I am very happy to have found is Andy Slavitt, who once served as the Acting Administrator for the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS). He is a great follow on Twitter and just launched a podcast called “In the Bubble.” Although he has a political background, I have found him to be pretty unbiased in presenting all sides of what we are facing: medical, economic, social, and political. And his mom just started a hashtag on Twitter “thebestofus”, sharing feel-good stories of people helping others.
That’s all for this week’s post – thanks again for reading. I’m going to be taking next week off and am going to think about how I want to move forward with the blog. I won’t call it a “vacation” since my friend Ron will remind me (good natured of course, at least I think?) that you can’t take a vacation if you don’t have a job. In this time, it feels a bit silly to be writing about movies and music, and I’m not sure I want to write about the pandemic or politics each week, so I’ll think through what to do next before I come back with a new post. Until then, I hope all of you and your families are safe and well.