Random Thoughts – 6.26.20

June 26, 2020

Thinking of how to start this week’s blog post as I ponder how the leader of the country should understand why sometimes percentages (like percentage of tests that are positive) are more important than raw numbers (number of positive cases).  That logic solves for the question of, “wait, are we having more cases because we are testing more people?”  It’s not complicated – you don’t need to be an actuary (shout out to my actuary readers) – it’s just math!  But I guess when you are trying to make an invalid point, you don’t let facts get in the way.  Moving right along…..

Media Resources

Speaking of the pandemic and data, I thought I would mention a few good media sources that I have been relying on for the last several weeks.  As I have written before, it’s hard to sift through the agendas (especially in the biased mainstream media) to get at the facts to draw your own opinion.  Since the pandemic started, I have been gravitating to Andy Slavitt, former head of the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services.  Andy has been partnering with leaders across the country to publish recommendations to state and federal officials on how to respond to the pandemic.  He also hosts a podcast called “In the Bubble” in which he interviews scientists, politicians, writers and others to bring in perspectives on dealing with the pandemic.  I find that I get the most information from his nightly Twitter feeds, which are also published on Medium here.  The reason I like Andy is that while he leans left, he focuses his commentary on facts and science.  I don’t mind when my media source is biased, as long as I know that going into an article.  For instance, I know I’m not going to get objective coverage going to CNN – most of the time, I am going there to see how they are covering a topic, not to get new facts, because I know it is going to have an agenda most of the time.  That being said, I can tell when Andy is losing his patience with the occupant of the White House, because he gets a little ornery in his Twitter posts, which has (unfortunately) increased in frequency over the last week.

Speaking of politics, with the coming election, I have also started to follow Nate Silver, of 538.com.  Nate is a statistician who has his roots in analyzing sports, but now focuses a lot of his work on politics and has been doing great work on the pandemic.  He also leans left, but his information tends to be fact and science based, which is important when it comes to the pandemic.  I also suspect his analysis of the election trends and polls will become more informative the closer we get to November.  As a reminder, while the mainstream media may highlight national polls because they are easier to digest by the average viewer in a soundbite headline, national polls are meaningless – it’s all about the individual states, about a dozen of which will swing the election.  If you are interested in a good resource on these two topics, Nate is a good one to follow online.

State of the Movie Industry

Despite the theater shutdown in March and the dramatic slowdown in movie releases, there has been a fair amount of activity in the movie industry these last few weeks.  The big news out of Hollywood was the decision to delay the Academy Awards from the end of February to the end of April.  The Academy also decided to extend the eligibility window from December 31 to February 28, meaning that the 2020 Oscars will be based on a 14 month eligibility window.  This gives studios more time to finish production on films that were delayed due to the shutdown, and manage the release schedule so we don’t have a pileup of big movies released in November and December (recall that a number of movies scheduled for the spring and summer have been moved to later in the year).  It still remains to be seen if this new schedule will be successful because it all depends on…..theaters.  Speaking of which….

The major theater chains announced their reopening plans last week.  The first one I read about was Cinemark (the owner of the large theater near me).  They discussed their plans to reopen nationwide over a several week period, with increased cleaning, contactless transactions, spaced out showtimes and most importantly, restricted seating to accommodate social distancing.  Here is a summary of their new policies.  They are initially showing older films (for $5) to welcome patrons back to theaters in the hopes that they will feel comfortable when the big summer movies come out in late July and August, as I discussed in my summer movie preview here.  UPDATE: Thursday night, Warner Bros. announced another delay for Christopher Nolan’s Tenet, now scheduled for August 12^th.  The big question of masks was also mentioned.  Cinemark stated that all of their employees would be wearing masks (and also have their temperatures taken before their shift starts).  Guests will be required to wear masks where locally mandated and Cinemark strongly encouraged guests to wear them, even it if it’s not mandated.  They emphasized the importance of wearing them in common areas like lobbies, restrooms, etc.  Makes sense, right?  I’ve been thinking about if / when I will go back to a theater.  I’m still in “wait and see mode” and will see how things unfold over the coming month or so.

So, I felt pretty good about my local theater chain doing the best they could in this environment.  Then AMC weighed in….oh boy.  The country’s largest theater chain announced their reopening plans, which included many of the same practices outlined by Cinemark (cleaning, limited seating, spaced out showtimes, etc.).  When it came to masks, the CEO stated that while they expect that most guests will wear them, they felt it “might be counterproductive if we forced mask wearing on those people who believe strongly that it is not necessary” and didn’t want to make it obligatory so as to “not get drawn into a political controversy.”  Wait, what?  Are you kidding me?  After immediate and severe backlash for giving credibility to the ridiculous notion that wearing masks is, in fact, a “political issue”, AMC reversed course the next day and announced they will require guests wear a mask.  As much as I am an optimist when it comes to theaters reopening, I suspect that with progress going backwards in many Southern and Western states, theater openings will be delayed and we could be seeing more releases pushed back further.  I hope I’m wrong, but we’ll see.

The Return of Golf – The Good and the Bad

These last few weeks have seen the return of the PGA Tour, with events in Texas, South Carolina and this week, a return to Connecticut.  As I mentioned when I wrote about the potential return of sports, golf is in the best position to return safely given the ability to practice social distancing during competition.  The tour set up a bubble system where players, caddies and coaches would stay as isolated as possible off the course, travel in charter planes from event to event, and get tested regularly to monitor their health.  So, first the good news – it’s been great to have professional sports back in our lives, the fields for the first few tournaments have been loaded, as players are looking to play as much as possible to make up for the lost three months of the tour.  With no fans allowed to attend, we’ve been able to hear more of the conversations on the course between the players and their caddies, both from the television mics and from a few players who wore mics on them.  There were also a few funny moments when some F-bombs were uttered by a player after an errant shot (we’ve all been there…..).  The on-course conversations have been great because you get to hear the strategy of the player as they are approaching their shot, taking into account all of the variables they are facing.  It’s also a reminder of just how difficult this game is, both physically and mentally. 

Now for the bad.  At the first event in Texas, there were no positive tests, so everything went fine.  At the second event in South Carolina, we started to see some cracks in the bubble.  The first player (Nick Watney) tested positive and withdrew from the tournament before the second round.  Word started traveling online about the lack of strict compliance with the tour’s safety rules, including players going out to restaurants, bars, etc.  One of the tour’s top players, Justin Thomas, commented that from what he saw, the beaches and restaurants were packed and it didn’t seem that people in the area were taking this very seriously.  Now, the tour comes to Connecticut, a state that has seen very good metrics the last month or so.  We’ve been fortunate that people seem to be adhering to mask use (almost) universally everywhere you go and people are being respectful of each other with social distancing. Also, our state government has been (thankfully) letting science, data, and common sense (not politics) drive decisions that are communicated in a transparent way.  At the beginning of this week’s tournament, however, we saw five players withdraw due to three positive tests (one player, two caddies), and two out of abundance of caution based on who they had been in contact with.  While it would be naïve to expect no positive cases, there was acknowledgment that the players need to tighten up their adherence to the rules.  While watching last week’s tournament, I found myself cringing when I saw players (instinctively) fist bump or get too close to each other.  The commissioner met with the media Wednesday, reporting the testing results and outlining increased protocols they were putting in place after meeting with the players executive council.  This includes additional testing, improved accommodations for players for food and exercise, and punishment for players who do not comply with the tour’s safety protocols. 

This is important for two reasons: first, it’s a good wakeup call for the players that the virus is still out there and they need to be vigilant about their day to day activity.  Unlike other sports, golfers are only paid if they play and make the cut to play all four rounds, so they have financial incentive to keep everyone healthy to keep the tour going.  Second, golf is the first high-profile sport to come back after the shutdown and everyone is watching.  If golf, as probably the safest sport to play in this environment, can’t get this right, other sports may not have hope.  I have no idea how basketball’s playoff bubble in Orlando can be successful, when it starts at the end of July.  Have you seen the testing data on Florida lately?  Keep your fingers crossed (and your masks on).

This Week’s Moments of Happiness

I recognize that hearing about someone’s golf round is about as exciting about hearing about their fantasy football team (not very), so I won’t be offended if you skip this part.  Over the last few years, I’ve gotten into the habit of getting out for a round of golf on my birthday, sometimes with friends, sometimes alone.  I did so last week, playing a quick round of 9 holes alone at my favorite course.  While I love playing golf with my best friends, sometimes it’s nice to play alone every once in a while, just enjoying being outside and the challenge of playing the course.  That’s what makes golf unique and fun to me – you are not competing directly against an opponent.  While you may sometimes be playing a match against someone, there is no offense vs. defense like you have with other sports.  It’s just you against the golf course – both physically and mentally, and at least a few times per round, you have to be strong mentally to succeed.  For the last several years, I have been chasing the elusive “breaking 40” on 9 holes (par is usually 36, so the goal is to be at 39 or better).  I’ve technically broken 40 once, but it was on a par 35, so it has an asterisk next to it in my mind.  On my birthday round, I came to the 7^th tee realizing that breaking 40 was a possibility, but unfortunately, I didn’t quite get there.  I barely missed a putt on the 8^th and didn’t sink the birdie putt I needed on the 9^th.  So, I had to settle for yet another 40.  While I was feeling a bit dejected, I reminded myself how well I played, so it gave me some good momentum going into my next round and that made me happy.  As golfers, you look for that one good hole every round to keep you coming back next time.  Of course, in my next round, I put up a 10 on the first hole.  You read that right – a 10.  If you don’t golf, that’s not good.  In fact, it’s quite bad.  As my friends and I often say (with dripping sarcasm), “I love this game.”

My other moment of happiness this week was the final event in our daughter’s high school graduation.  As I have written over the last few weeks, the town modified plans this year and held a virtual graduation ceremony.  On the big day, we went to the high school in our car, she was given her diploma, had an elbow bump with the principal and a few teachers, and after having her name announced over the loudspeaker, we drove under an arch of balloons while everyone clapped.  It was very special, and quite emotional for us as a family and we are so proud of her accomplishment.  That night we gathered around the television and watched the virtual ceremony with the typical speeches, and each graduate’s name read while their picture of them getting their diploma was shown on the screen.  Overall, the school did a very nice job, especially considering the circumstances.  Our daughter’s quote summed it up the best – “This is not the way we might have imagined graduation, but that doesn’t make it bad.  It is a happy time because I’m still graduating.” 

That’s all for this week.  Thanks again for reading.  I’ll be taking next week off and will return in two weeks with the first in a series of a mid-year report on the best (and worst) of the year in movies.  Yes, we’ve had a number of films with great potential get delayed, but there have been some really good movies so far this year.  If you would like to be notified of future posts, you can subscribe here.  Thanks, and have a great weekend and holiday.