Random Thoughts – April 3, 2020

We’ve turned the calendar to April and it’s hard to believe how much has changed in the last month.  Much like all of you, it’s baffling to look back at what I was doing at the beginning of March, what we were planning for and what we “worried about” compared to where we focus our time and energy now.  After some pretty serious material the last few weeks, I’m going to try to lighten things up a bit this week.

State of the Movie Industry

I’ll steer back into my lane to start things off this week.  But before that, I’ll reiterate what I said a few weeks ago – there are clearly a lot more important areas of focus in the world right now than movies, but it’s what I write about and I find it interesting to see how the industry is impacted by the disruption in our lives and what actions will be taken by those businesses most affected.  Plus, there are a few feel-good stories I’m sharing this week.

There have been a number of moving pieces in the industry over the last month or so.  With all theaters shut down, the large theater chains are scrambling – there have been layoffs announced by large chains AMC and Cinemark (AMC in particular looks like it has serious liquidity issues), and I can only imagine what the small theaters throughout the country will be going through, trying to hang on until they can open again.  As I said last week, this is all about cash flow.  It’s certainly tough to guess when theaters will be allowed to open, if there are restrictions placed on them when they do, and when people will be willing to gather together in a theater.  Speaking of large crowds, the longer this goes, I wonder how strange it will feel to attend the first concert or sporting event following the great shutdown. 

With theaters closed, movie studios are adjusting their plans as well.  There have been various impacts to movie releases, depending on where the films were in the production pipeline.  For movies that were already released, there was an acceleration to online release via Video on Demand.  Most of these have been rentals in the $14.99 – $19.99 price range.  This will prove to be an interesting experiment for studios to see if there is an appetite for this price point.  On the one hand, with all of the streaming content included in monthly subscriptions, I wonder if people will want to spend money for another movie.  On the other hand, if you were willing to go out as a couple to see a new release, would spending $20 to watch it from the comfort of your home feel like the same economic impact?  This past two weeks have seen a number of films that have performed pretty well in the online rentals.  In fact, eight of the top ten online rentals last week were newer releases priced in the $19.99 range.  This includes movies like The Invisible Man, Birds of Prey, Bloodshot, and The Way Back.  Disney has taken a slightly different approach with its films, given its new streaming service Disney+, which has had a very successful launch.  Shortly after cities and towns were stressing the importance of staying inside, Disney accelerated the launch of Frozen II to Disney+.  Last week, they announced that Onward (released in theaters on March 6^th) would begin streaming on Disney+ on April 3^rd, a very quick transition.  It’s an interesting strategy to attract streaming subscribers, especially since their service is relatively new.

Next came the decision of what to do with upcoming releases.  A lot of the films have seen their release dates delayed, including Mulan, A Quiet Place II, and No Time to Die.  Universal Studios took an extreme approach with its upcoming animated film Trolls World Tour, bypassing theaters altogether and moving to Video on Demand on April 10^th.  This move did not go over well with The National Association of Theatre Owners, whose leader said “Only Universal, and only on Trolls, did one studio skip the theatrical model and go straight to the home.  Universal continues to advertise to consumers that Trolls will be released simultaneously to theaters and the home on April 10.  And they are lying to consumers.  Universal knows that theaters will still be closed on April 10, so unlike every other distributor who must simply delay their releases in that time period, but still understand that theatrical release is essential to their business model, Universal on Trolls didn’t make that decision.  Exhibitors will not forget this.”  Yikes – that’s some conflict there.  Now, I saw the commercial for Trolls World Tour the other day and it did say “In theaters and On Demand on April 10^th” – that’s pretty disingenuous advertising. 

Next comes the decision about what to do with summer releases, as we don’t know when theaters might be open again.  Warner Bros. delayed the Wonder Woman sequel from June to August, Paramount just moved the Top Gun sequel from June to December, and Sony made a big move this week, delaying some of their summer releases (Ghostbusters: Afterlife, Peter Rabbit 2, and the Spider Man spinoff Moribus) to next year!  They also moved the Tom Hanks World War II drama Greyhound from June to TBD.  As I was finishing this week’s post, Disney announced a slew of new release dates. Why might they be moving movies so far ahead?  That brings us to the next part of the pipeline – movies in production or pre-production are also getting delayed.  So, studios are now scrambling to figure out their schedule for the next year or two, not knowing when they can their product back in theaters.  You have probably read that there could be a big pileup of sporting events later in the year – the same is true for the movie industry.  So, some studios may want to save some product for early 2021. 

That brings us to the next topic, which is the constant battle for new content.  We have already seen an increase in competition from Netflix, Amazon, Hulu, Apple and Disney for content, and this will likely pickup as they may be the prime source for movie viewing for the next several months.  Paramount had originally planned to release the comedy The Lovebirds in June, but instead just sold it to Netflix.  I’ve also been reading that there is a lot of activity from streaming services for independent films that did well at the Sundance Film Festival.  One of the best reviewed films from that festival, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, was in theaters for only a few days before the shutdown and will be released for on demand rental April 3^rd.  Amazon just struck a deal to stream the films that were scheduled to premiere at South by Southwest in March.  This is great to see as it will give a chance for the filmmakers of small, lesser known movies to get a showcase and potentially sell their films to distributors.  I expect there will be a lot more of this activity in the coming weeks, and hopefully we will be back to the theater going experience very soon.  I still enjoy seeing a great movie on the big screen.

A couple more feel-good stories to close out this topic of the state of the movie business.  There has been a growing effort to support small theaters that have closed down, and might have the toughest time coming back if this lasts a very long time.  A few film distribution companies (Magnolia Pictures, Kino Lorber, and Film Movement) that typically distribute smaller films (arthouse, festival type movies) are setting up the capability to stream some of these movies online.  The neat thing is that they are partnering with the small theaters to share in the revenue.  When you rent the movie (typically about $12), you pick the theater you want your “virtual ticket” to, and the theater gets a portion of the proceeds.  You can read more about this new experiment here.

Another story I found interesting was this one about a small theater in Texas that converted its parking lot into a drive-in theater and has had great success.  How did they do that?  Read this article to find out.

Who’s up for some recommendations?

Two weeks ago, I gave a lot of movie and TV recommendations.  No, I am not watching Tiger King on Netflix – not my kind of show and to be honest, I’ll be happy when it stops showing up in my social media timelines!  How about some book recommendations?  I generally like mystery or suspense in the fiction genre, and pretty much anything in the nonfiction genre.  Here are some of my favorites over the years.

• Last week I recommended The Only Plane in the Sky, the oral history of 9/11.  Two other good oral histories that I liked:  Live from New York: An Oral History of Saturday Night Live, by Tom Shales and Those Guys Have All the Fun: Inside the World of ESPN, by James Andrew Miller
• Bad Blood by John Carreyrou, the story of the rise and fall of Theranos, the Silicon Valley startup that was too good to be true, and its CEO, Elizabeth Holmes.  This one is being made into a movie with Jennifer Lawrence portraying Holmes.
• Den of Thieves by James B. Stewart, the story of the insider trading scandal on Wall Street in the 1980s and the government officials who brought it down.  Stewart covered the story for the Wall Street Journal and this one reads like a spy novel.  If you like business books, Stewart also wrote DisneyWar, an excellent book about Michael Eisner’s tenure as CEO at Walt Disney.
• Stronger by Jeff Bauman, an incredible story about an ordinary guy who lost his legs in the Boston Marathon bombing.  His struggle and courage are truly inspirational.  This was also made into an excellent film starring Jake Gyllenhaal as Bauman.
• All the President’s Men and The Last Days – Woodward and Bernstein’s classic tales of the downfall of the Nixon presidency.  The first book was made into one of my favorite films, but the books include more to the story than could be told in a two hour movie.
• Killers of the Flower Moon by David Grann, the story of a mysterious set of killings in a Native American community in Oklahoma that is investigated by the FBI, shortly after its creation.  This one will be made into a movie with Martin Scorsese directing Robert De Niro and Leonardo DiCaprio.
• Devil in the White City by Erik Larson.  This one sounds like a crazy concept for a book, but it’s fantastic.  During the Chicago World’s Fair in 1893, there was a serial killer murdering people in his enormous hotel in downtown Chicago.  Larson weaves together the story of the killer and the man who designed and drove the creation of the World’s Fair.
• The Martian by Andy Weir.  You may have seen the movie with Matt Damon, but the book is even better.
• My Lovely Wife by Samantha Downing, a story from 2019 about a couple who develop a new hobby when their lives get boring – murdering people.
• Daisy Jones & The Six by Taylor Jenkins Reid – told in an “oral history” format, the rise and fall of a rock band in the 1970s.
• The Immortalists by Chloe Benjamin – an unconventional story about four adolescent siblings who sneak out to see a psychic to hear their fortunes, but are also told the day they will die.  This news shapes their lives over the next several decades.  This was a pretty cool story.
• 11/22/63 by Stephen King.  I’m mentioned before that I am working through King’s books, but I read this one a few years ago as I am a sucker for anything about the JFK assassination.  King put an interesting spin on the topic with the story of a man who finds a portal to travel back in time and decides to try to stop Kennedy’s assassination.  This is a long one, but don’t be intimidated – you’ll fly through this one.
• The Killer Angels by Michael Shaara.  I read this one back in college during a course I took on the Civil War and it’s on my list to read again.  An outstanding story of the battle of Gettysburg, told from the perspective of all of the major participants. 

This week’s Moments of Happiness

There are only a few bands that I truly love that are still producing new music and Pearl Jam is one of those few.  They released their first album (Gigaton) in almost seven years last week and I’ve had it playing on repeat a lot these last several days.  It’s got some songs that really rock and a few that are on the lighter side, which has been typical for most of their albums.  It’s great to see a band that has been going at it for 30 years still bringing it on new music. 

In conjunction with the new album’s release, two of the band members (lead singer Eddie Vedder and bassist Jeff Ament) were interviewed on the Bill Simmons podcast, covering a wide range of topics including some stories from the early days, how they managed to survive as a band for so long, their love of basketball and baseball, and some stories of touring over the years.  It also provided two moments that made me feel really cool (for a middle-aged recovering accountant) and made me feel like a loser who knows way too much about the band.  At one point, Simmons was asking Eddie how he decided on the track list order for a new album.  Eddie said he really didn’t know and that it just came together based on how it felt, much like how he decides the band’s setlist before a concert, looking at the flow of the concert from song to song.  [Pearl Jam is one of the rare bands who mixes up their setlist every night, which is one of the reasons I love listening to their live concerts, of which I own way too many to admit in this blog post – but that’s a topic for another day.]  Eddie went on to say that it may date back to when he was a kid keeping score at baseball games and that there’s a bit of accounting to it, like when they play multiple shows at one location and want to make sure they don’t repeat any songs from night to night.  Wait a minute, did Eddie Vedder just compare putting together a concert setlist to Accounting?  Ok, now I’m feeling pretty good. 

Later in the interview, Simmons was telling Eddie and Jeff that when he began dating his wife, they saw a memorable Pearl Jam show at Great Woods in Massachusetts in 1998.  Eddie asked Jeff if that was the show that they opened with an acoustic set and I literally said out loud, “No, that was in 2003.”  Oh my God, I’ve got a problem.  You see, the reason I know that (not that it excuses my malfunctioning brain) is that in 2003, Pearl Jam played three shows at Great Woods and decided to play all the songs they rehearsed for the tour over those three nights.  The problem was that they had so many songs on that list, and Great Woods had a strict curfew, so they didn’t have enough time to cover all the songs over three “typical length” shows.  So, for the final show, they played an acoustic set before the opening act, then came out and played a full show after the opening act.  They played over 40 songs that night and over 90 songs over the three nights with only one repeat song.  And that is an example of why they are one of the best live bands ever.  They had to cancel their Spring tour this year but are planning to reschedule as soon as they can and I am looking forward to seeing them live again.  But until then, I’m just thankful I have new Pearl Jam music in my life.

Another moment of happiness this week was finding out that Sirius would be bringing back the Dave Matthews Band channel this week.  They play a good mix of live and studio songs and each Friday night they broadcast a full live concert.  I also saw that Sirius is running a free offer from now until May 15^th, so if you don’t have it now, it’s a good time to check it out.

My next moment of happiness is also one of inspiration.  There are a lot of tough stories that we are all reading right now – the statistics are staggering, the personal stories of what doctors and nurses are going through are heartbreaking, and it seems like we are still in for a tough several weeks to come.  And as I mentioned last week, most of the political news is far from inspiring.  But what has provided me some moments of happiness are the ways that companies are stepping up to help out in any way they can.  Manufacturers have changed their production lines to start producing supplies and equipment for hospitals, large companies are committing to no layoffs for the rest of the year, retailers are expanding hiring and providing raises and bonuses to support their overworked and stressed employees.  Yes, there are a lot of people losing jobs or being furloughed as companies struggle through a very difficult cash crunch.  But the companies who can weather the storm are also doing good things.  My wife is keeping a list of companies we will be sure to support when we emerge from this tough time, because they are doing the right thing when it matters most.

My last moment of happiness happened just this afternoon, courtesy of my wife.  She referred me to John Krasinski’s new YouTube channel called “Some Good News.”  He is highlighting some feel-good stories that are out there, including some websites that are focused on positive stories.  So, while it’s important to stay on top of the news, be sure to find some good news to balance out the bad news, because it’s out there, and believe me – it helps.

Thanks again for reading and I hope all of you are managing through this challenging time ok.  As a reminder, if you’d like to subscribe to be notified of future posts, you can do that here.

See you next week.