January 13, 2023
It’s hard to believe that this is the fourth year that I am recapping the year in movies, but when you love your hobby, you keep at it. You have probably been seeing a number of “top ten” and “best of 2022” lists the last several weeks. Critics get early access to movies through screenings and film festivals, so that’s why they have seen virtually everything by Christmas. Not so for wannabes like me. That being said, I’ve been keeping up with new releases throughout the year, was able to see some movies early as part of the Sundance Film Festival and Philadelphia Film Festival and am just about done with everything that was on my list.
Also, the awards season is just beginning with the Golden Globes this past Tuesday, Oscar nominations to be announced on January 24th and the Oscar ceremony on March 12th. So you have plenty of time to catch up on some of the best films of the year before the Oscars. For that reason (and the fact that I have so much to say about another eventful year in the world of cinema), I’m going to be covering this series in multiple parts. The first three will feature some of the best movies I saw this past year that you might have missed. Since I didn’t do a mid-year report last year, I have a lot of great films to cover. After that series, I’ll cover my ten favorite movies of the year. Before we jump into those topics, let’s check in on the state of the industry.
Cold Hard Reality
Guess what? The entertainment, film, and television world is not immune to the economic reality that every other industry is facing right now. If you are like me, you probably read headlines that say things like “Netflix pays over $400 million for sequels to Knives Out” and think “How is that economically feasible?” No disrespect to Glass Onion, one of my favorite films of the year, this was an example of many instances where the streaming arms war over the last two years has led to a bit of reckoning that is comparable to waking up on New Year’s Day saying “What happened last night?”
Let’s face it. Whether we are in a recession, have been for a year, or entering one in 2023, it really doesn’t matter. The economy is soft. The stock market is down. Large companies, especially in the tech space, have been laying off tens of thousands of workers. Things are very dicey right now. And the film / television production studios and streamers are seeing pressures as well. Ad spending in the media world is slowing down, which significantly impacts their revenue. Some of the streaming services are even adopting new models to attract new revenue. You can now buy a cheaper Netflix plan as long as you are willing to watch commercials. And everyone is looking to cut costs, in the form of employee costs, production costs, or both. Industry experts predict more pressure in 2023 with the players in very different places.
The Juggernaut
A word of caution – this is not investment advice. A company’s stock price rises and falls based on the perceived future value of the company. It’s all about confidence – in the industry, the company itself, the product it sells, and the people running it. When the leader in the industry has a hiccup in its quarterly earnings announcement, it causes all stocks in the industry to go down. Wall Street likes predictability and steady growth. They hate chaos. So, when Netflix announced its second quarter earnings this year, along with a forecasted decrease in subscribers, Wall Street freaked. The business model for streaming has been: Trust us, this is the future. We’re going to grow subscribers quickly, and revenue and profit will come later. Despite a massive runup in streaming activity during the pandemic (not a surprise), Netflix showed some cracks in the foundation.
Now, they are back on track recently, with the success of some strong programs, but they have sent a strong message to Wall Street. The days of spending sprees are over. They are cutting back on production, and they are going to increase revenue by introducing an ad-based option, and making it harder for people to share passwords, forcing customers to create their own account. More details to come on that strategy when they roll it out this year.
One revenue source that Netflix doesn’t seem to care about is box office revenue. They rarely put their movies in theaters, except for a small number of pictures for only a week to gain award eligibility. At the request of director Rian Johnson, they released Glass Onion in a larger number of theaters, including major chains they previously wouldn’t work with. The film was only in theaters for a week, but reportedly did strong business. Netflix refuses to release their box office numbers, but there were many stories about packed theaters, which is the best way to see a movie like Glass Onion, like I did in a sold-out theater at the Philadelphia Film Festival. Despite the success of Glass Onion, Netflix has indicated that they only care about streaming, because that’s their whole business. Time will tell if they deviate from this strategy.
Cash Strapped
Despite the grief Netflix got about soft subscriber numbers, they are still very successful with the largest number of subscribers (very close with Disney+) and a profitable business. They aren’t facing financial pressures like these next two players.
Disney has been one of the strongest brands in American history, but this past year showed that they aren’t perfect. With pressure on theme park revenue during the pandemic, and a slow-down in box office revenue, Disney fast-tracked their growth in the Disney+ streaming service. This was helped by a strong catalogue (Disney animated classics, Marvel, and Star Wars), as well as new television series that were hit or miss. But a few facts came to light this past year. First, the debt that Disney is carrying is very large, relative to their revenue and profitability. It’s largely from their recent acquisition activity, most recently the Fox Entertainment portfolio. And Disney’s profitability has been significantly impacted by the soaring costs for Disney+, as well as a relatively low subscription price. All of this led to a dramatic leadership change when former CEO Bob Iger was brought back to the company to fix things. Needless to say, Disney will likely be in turmoil in 2023, but not as much as this next company.
Warner Bros. Studios has been one of the major Hollywood players for decades. In fact, this year, the studio will celebrate 100 years in the business. But recent ownership changes (including a disastrous run with AT&T, followed by a merger with Discovery Networks) has led to a company with a bloated debt load weighing down its Balance Sheet. The new company (called Warner Brothers Discovery) is looking to streamline its movie and television production studios, as well as its cable channels and streaming services, with HBO Max and Discovery+ likely to be combined in the next year. All of these financial pressures (and the hunt for synergies – code for cost cutting to appease investors) has led to a cut in production commitments, cancelation of finished products (like the Batgirl film) and services (like CNN+) to get some tax write-offs, and (naturally) layoffs. It will be interesting to see what impact this has on WBD’s ability to attract talent to its prestige television shows on HBO Max and its storied film studio project.
Everyone Else
Unlike the companies we just discussed, which have high concentration risk in the entertainment industry, the new kids in town (Apple and Amazon) aren’t new kids to consumer businesses. No, in fact, they are juggernauts on their own. But their foray into movie and television through the launch of Apple TV+ and expansion of Amazon Studios with the purchase of MGM Studios shows that these titans of industry are serious about expanding their business portfolio. Apple has taken the boutique approach, building their own shows and either acquiring finished films (like Best Picture winner CODA) or financing projects for prestige filmmakers (like Martin Scorsese’s forthcoming Killers of the Flower Moon). Amazon has also taken this approach, but also built their own catalogue of shows and movies you can watch with your Amazon Prime membership. It remains to be seen what these two companies will do in the entertainment space, but one thing is for sure – they are not short on cash, so an acquisition wouldn’t surprise me.
The other players in film and television are each facing their own set of problems. Paramount Studios has (like Warner Bros.) a long history in Hollywood and is coming off of a very successful year at the box office with Top Gun: Maverick, Smile, Sonic the Hedgehog 2, Scream, The Lost City, and Jackass Forever all doing very well. But without Tom Cruise saving movie theaters, this could have been a dicey year for Paramount. And its streaming service has had a rough start, but is doing better since expanding its strong film catalogue. Unfortunately, you can’t watch its biggest television show (Yellowstone) on Paramount+ since they made a deal with Comcast to stream it on Peacock. Why did they do that? Because Comcast made a great offer and Paramount+ didn’t exist yet.
Speaking of Comcast, they are in probably the toughest shape of any of the major players. Their primary business (cable television) is in decline with the continued increase in cord-cutting. Their film studio (Universal Pictures) has been hit or miss – sure, the new Jurassic Park and Minions movies were monster hits, but The Fabelmans, She Said, and Bros were massive disappointments. And let’s face it, Peacock is probably the weakest of the streaming services. There has been speculation that there could be some merger activity between Paramount and Comcast, but it wouldn’t be a straightforward purchase for one major reason. Paramount owns the CBS network and Comcast owns NBC. No way the Federal government would allow that merger.
The 2022 Box Office
Despite all of this gloom and doom, there were some nice surprises in 2022 and a few mammoth blockbusters. It’s just not back to 2019 levels. Total box office revenue in 2022 was about 30% lower than 2019, but theatrical released movies were also down about 30%. A big problem the industry saw this past year was a lack of product available for the shelves. The pandemic disruptions in movie production, including delays, increased costs, and outright cancellations, led to fewer options to put in theaters. The decrease was also due to an increased shift by some studios to push their films directly to streaming.
That being said, there were some strong films at the box office this year, led by Top Gun: Maverick, which generated an outrageous $1.5 billion worldwide during its six-month run. The fact that it stayed in theaters so long tells you how successful the movie was. I’ll share my thoughts on that one in a few weeks as I get to my top ten list.
For all the success Tom Cruise had in saving movie theaters, James Cameron respectfully said, “Hold my beer and get out of the way, Maverick.” His long-awaited sequel Avatar: The Way of Water was released in late December and jumped past Top Gun: Maverick in less than a month. Cameron’s film was boosted by a strong box office overseas, which represented almost two thirds of the total gross receipts. Needless to say, Cameron will be continuing his Avatar franchise, as he has at least three more installments planned. While we are here, I did see Avatar: The Way of Water, after only watching the first film a few weeks earlier. I somehow missed the boat on that one when it was released in 2009. I thought the new one was pretty good – great special effects, kind of a weak story (but that’s not why we go to these movies, is it?), but too damn long. It clocked in at just over three hours. I’m begging you Hollywood – please stop giving directors “final cut” unless they commit to a film less than 150 minutes.
Besides the two big blockbusters, the other stories this year were strong movies from Marvel, but nearly as big as what Disney is used to, the continued box office dominance of horror, a few nice indie surprises and the collapse of the theatrical model for adult focused dramas. We have seen this the last few years and it was evident more than ever in 2022. Some of my favorite movies of the year came and went in theaters very quickly. Would you ever have guessed that an awards-contending film from Steven Spielberg would do so poorly at the box office that it was available to rent at home a few weeks later? That’s just one example.
And look, I get it. The audience for these types of movies are more than willing to wait to watch them at home. And with the great quality of TVs in our homes, it’s becoming less urgent to see a movie in the theater, unless it’s a spectacle (like Top Gun: Maverick, Avatar: The Way of Water, a Marvel film, or a horror movie, which has the added fun of getting scared with a group of people). You just can’t stop horror films. We just saw the new campy thriller M3GAN (which is very fun) make $30 million in its opening weekend, which was more than awards contenders The Fabelmans, TÁR, and The Banshees of Inisherin made during their entire theatrical run combined. I just hope that this trend in moviegoing doesn’t cause studios to stop making these types of pictures, because as much as I like action, horror, and superhero movies, it’s a nice change of pace to get a compelling, well-written drama to change things up. Time will tell.
Ok, let’s talk about some specific movies. We’re going to start with one of the light-hearted films that surprised at the box office. It helps when your picture features a bona fide movie star and a dog. That’s right, a dog.
A Tender, Sweet Story – Dog
It was a good year for Channing Tatum, who had leading roles in two successful films in 2022. One of them was a romantic comedy that grossed over $100 million (which I will also cover in this series) and Dog reminded us that star power can drive people to the theaters. In fact, his next film, Magic Mike’s Last Dance, the third installment in the series, was originally scheduled to be released only on HBO Max. But with the Warner Bros. change in strategic direction, they changed course and the Steven Soderbergh-directed picture will be in theaters for Valentine’s Day weekend. I’m sure Tatum’s success at the box office this past year made that decision pretty easy.
In Dog, Tatum plays a former Army ranger who is recovering from a brain injury and suffering from PTSD. He is desperate to get back to serving with his comrades, but cannot get cleared for a return to active duty. He is notified that a friend he served with died in a car accident and is asked to transport the friend’s military dog to the funeral. Now, this is no ordinary dog – he’s large, aggressive, and not too keen to take a long drive with a stranger. Dog is a nice comedy-drama with some touching moments, sprinkled in with comedic scenes when the dog misbehaves. It usually involves the not-so-friendly canine destroying something, followed by Tatum chasing after him. I was pleasantly surprised how much I liked this one, and I think Tatum’s performance had a lot to do with it. This isn’t a groundbreaking story, but his comedic timing, interactions with the dog, and touching performance as a man in crisis made the difference. Dog is now available to stream on Prime Video and Paramount+.
A Fantastic Action Movie – The Woman King
Usually I start the year with a long list of films I’m planning to see. Some are no-brainers. I’m going to check them out, even if the early reviews are subpar. But for some movies, I may be on the fence and that’s where I usually lean on the early reviews. For instance, the recent Whitney Houston biopic I Wanna Dance With Somebody showed some promise. But when the early reviews noted that it was another standard biopic, I decided I would pass. The 2 ½ hour runtime also made that decision easier. On the contrary, when I saw strong reviews for this next movie, I decided to check it out and I’m certainly glad I did.
The Woman King is a period piece action-adventure, centered around a tribe of women warriors in 1820’s Africa. Viola Davis plays the leader of the tribe, charged with training the next generation of warriors to defend their land against a potential attack. I have run hot and cold on Davis over the years. At times, I find her a compelling performer, but at other times I felt like she was overly dramatic – perhaps it was just certain roles. But in The Woman King, she is excellent, and let me tell you that the action in this movie is incredible.
Director Gina Prince-Bythewood, whose 2020 film The Old Guard was one of my favorites of that year, shows that she is a leader in the action genre and that her previous film was no fluke. The action sequences of The Woman King were definitely the highlight for me (and not too violent if that kind of thing bothers you), but there is also a nice story of mentorship and community between one of the tribe’s leaders (played by Lashana Lynch in an excellent performance) and a young girl played by Thuso Mbedu. The Woman King was well received by critics and could sneak into the conversation when Oscar nominations come out. The Woman King is available to rent on demand and should be streaming on Netflix soon.
A Creative Prequel – Prey
In 1987, at the height of his popularity, Arnold Schwarzenegger was the star of Predator, an science fiction-action-horror movie about an alien terrorizing a military team on a rescue mission. The film was a box-office hit and launched a franchise that continued for many years. I have never seen any of the movies in this series, but started hearing great things about Prey, a prequel set in the 1700s, when it came out last summer. The premise is that these types of aliens have been around for centuries and in this film, we see the alien terrorizing a Native American community.
At the heart of the story is Naru (played by Amber Midthunder in a strong performance) who spots the predator and tries (in vain) to warn her tribe of the impending danger. As with any film like this, you’re going to get some scary and gory sequences, so buyer beware if that is not your thing. I’m usually game for anything other than body horror, so I’m happy I decided to watch this one. It’s full of suspense, horror-style jump scares, great action sequences with good special effects, and a family story that makes this more than just an action movie.
The release of this film was kind of interesting, at least to me. Prey had been in development for years and was part of the portfolio that Disney purchased from Fox Entertainment in 2019. Under that agreement, any movies released to theaters would stream on HBO Max, based on a previous streaming agreement Fox had with Warner Bros. But Disney could make the decision to put the movie directly to Hulu, the streamer they co-own with Comcast. This meant that they missed out on box-office revenue, but it served as a good film to bring viewers to Hulu. Given the strong word of mouth after the picture’s release, it looks like Hulu missed out on a lot of revenue, but such is the dilemma with these companies these days. Trying to decide a release strategy and predict what consumers will do is never easy. Prey is available to stream on Hulu.
In On The Joke – The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent
Say what you will about Nicolas Cage, the last thing you could call him is lazy. The man works nonstop and while some of his movies have been direct-to-video films you’ve never heard of, sometimes he shows that he’s still got it. His performance in 2021’s Pig was a showcase of his dramatic acting talents and earned him some of his strongest critical reviews in years. Someone with his career longevity and an Oscar win (albeit more than twenty-five years ago) could take the approach of “Do you know who I am?” and not be willing to take risky roles. But you can tell that he loves to work, and after the strong reviews of Pig, there were a few stories about how much he is admired in Hollywood by his peers. They recognize his talents and appreciate the kind of roles he takes, even if some of them are pretty damn goofy. If you saw Prisoners of the Ghostland or Color Out of Space, you know what I’m talking about.
This is why it was exciting to hear about the premise of last year’s The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent, where it was clear that Cage is in on the joke. He plays himself, but maybe a sadder version of himself, clearly struggling to get roles and having financial problems. Well, never mind – maybe this is more realistic than I was thinking. Anyway, Cage is recruited to attend a billionaire’s birthday party on a remote island for a cool $1 million. Desperate for the money, he takes the gig and he meets his superfan, played by Pedro Pascal. It seems like it will be a silly weekend of two people getting to know each other, but when Cage is contacted by two CIA agents, things heat up. They suspect Cage’s host is a terrorist and they ask him to help get some evidence of Pascal’s misdeeds. What transpires are hijinks, funny action sequences, and a lot of laughs. There aren’t many actors who could have pulled off this role, but Cage is definitely at the top of the list. And if you thought this role would be a capstone for his acting career, think again. He is playing Dracula (c’mon, you can’t be surprised) alongside Nicholas Hoult as the title character in Renfeld, who is the long-suffering assistant to Dracula. The trailer for this one just came out and it looks great. In the meantime, The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent is available to stream on Starz or to rent on demand.
A Wild Adrenaline Rush – Ambulance
I won’t say that this is one of the best movies I’ve seen all year, but this was definitely one of the best theater experiences I had this past year. The premise of Ambulance is ridiculous. But if you go into this movie knowing that you are getting an action adventure directed by Michael Bay (The Rock, Armageddon, the Transformers series) about two thieves who hijack an ambulance and lead a thrilling chase through L.A., your expectations will definitely be exceeded.
As the film begins, we meet Will (played by the excellent Yahya Abdul-Mateen) trying to convince his insurance company to cover his wife’s experimental cancer surgery. Naturally, they say no, and he visits his brother Danny (played by Jake Gyllenhaal) who just so happens to be a criminal on his way to pull off a major bank heist. Coincidence or convenient plot device? Don’t let that get in the way of your enjoyment – we have a lot more plot holes to come.
Anyway, they go off to rob the bank, things go awry (of course) and they end up stealing an ambulance as an escape vehicle. One problem. Well, two problems. They shot a cop in the process of escaping and Will feels guilty, so he takes him in the ambulance to get him to a hospital, and they take the EMT (played by Eiza González) as a hostage to keep the cop alive. But Danny has other ideas. He’s not going to risk getting caught by the cops with a stop at the local hospital. He wants to get away with his millions from the bank heist. Meanwhile, the LAPD and FBI launch a massive chase through the streets of L.A. and everything you can imagine happening does.
Ambulance is like Speed meets Heat with a sprinkling of The Blues Brothers absurdity. Bay did a perfect job in casting his lead characters. Mateen plays the calm and practical brother, while Gyllenhaal is beyond unhinged as the bombastic hothead. This is my favorite kind of Gyllenhaal and you can tell he is having an absolute blast with this role, recognizing that this is a popcorn movie and nothing more. There are so many things to love about Ambulance, as long as you don’t take it too seriously. Have fun with it. There are a million camera shots filmed with a drone moving up and around the city. There are exciting action sequences and lots of car crashes and stuff blowing up. There is a comical scene where the brothers sing yacht rock anthem Sailing in an effort to calm themselves down while racing along the highway at 90 miles per hour. And if you can’t laugh at the absurdity of the EMT trying to do surgery on the cop’s spleen, with two doctors conferencing in via video from a golf course to assist, while Gyllenhaal refuses to slow down the ambulance’s ridiculous speed, then you might need to question your love of cinema. Ambulance is now streaming on Amazon Prime.
That’s all for this week. I’ll be back next week with a look at more of my favorite films of 2022. If you’d like to find where to watch any of the movies I write about, you can go to JustWatch.com and search for the film there. Sometimes movies jump from one streaming service to another, so JustWatch is a great resource. Thanks for reading and if you’d like to be notified of future posts, you can subscribe below.