April 28, 2023
The movie industry continues to recover from the impact of the global pandemic which shuttered theaters, disrupted production, and created chaotic release strategies by film studios. When theaters shut down, a number of movies were sent straight to streaming services, offered up for home rental, or put on the shelf for a later release (the Top Gun: Maverick strategy). But we are now in a world where every studio (except one) is trying different strategies, depending on their view of the film’s prospects. That dynamic, along with the continued impact of a soft economy, is causing a continued evolution of when and where we will see movies for the foreseeable time period. Let’s use that as a jumping off point for a pulse check on the industry.
State of the Industry
After strong debuts from Scream VI, Creed III, and John Wick: Chapter 4 (see a pattern here?) earlier this year, there was growing optimism that there would be the long-awaited “return to movie theaters” that we’ve been anticipating since the world turned upside down three years ago. But no one could have predicted just how well The Super Mario Bros. movie would do in theaters, taking advantage of a wide release on Easter weekend, coupled with a popular spring vacation week. The film was a monster hit, and is now projected to be 2023’s first $1 billion movie, an achievement it will earn pretty quickly. In case you are wondering, I won’t be seeing that one – it’s just not in my wheelhouse and I really have no interest. But, I will say that when I recently made a last-minute decision to see Renfield, the new Nicolas Cage spin on Dracula, on a rainy Sunday, I was stunned how many people were packed into the theater lobby. I quickly realized that I was smack in the middle of Mario and Luigi’s world. The hype is real.
A movie like Super Mario Bros. is a no-brainer for theaters, especially with the limited family offerings during the first part of the year. Animated films and superhero movies will usually draw big crowds. That being said, the latter category has been relatively disappointing for Disney and Warner Bros. as the new Ant-Man movie underperformed, and the Shazam sequel was a bona fide flop. Don’t cry for the superheroes just yet – Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 premieres in early May and is sure to perform very well. That’s another one I will pass on. I didn’t care for the first two installments and after feeling disappointed by the recent run of Marvel films, I’m going to tap out on that universe, at least for a bit. I don’t begrudge anyone who loves these kinds of movies, but I do get frustrated by the impact of those movies on the ability to see smaller pictures. I wanted to see a recently released independent film that wasn’t playing at my local Cinemark, which was screening Super Mario Bros. 30 times per day. That’s not an exaggeration, and it’s an example of what we will likely continue to see with new releases.
Despite momentum at the box-office, studios are still struggling whether to send a new release into theaters, or directly to their streaming service. And if they do release it in theaters, how long do they keep it there before releasing it for home rental? You would think it would be an easy answer – put it in theaters to earn more money, right? Well, the ticket sales are split between the theater chains and the movie studios, who also have to spend money to market the film. And if your movie bombs at the box office, you’re throwing good money after bad. These decisions aren’t simple and we’ve seen examples where studios change their mind based on a film’s potential. Last year, Paramount Pictures decided to release Smile in theaters instead of directly to its streaming service Paramount+. The film earned over $200 million at the box office (against a $17 million budget), demonstrating once and again that horror is almost always going to be a winner at the box office.
Amazon and Apple are also in on this strategy based on recent announcements from the corporate giants who also dabble in entertainment. Earlier this month saw the release of Air, the Ben Affleck-Matt Damon story of how Nike signed Michael Jordan to a shoe contract and helped revolutionize sports marketing. More on that movie later. The film was bought by Amazon, who decided to release it in theaters before streaming it on Amazon Prime. Air did pretty well, earning over $50 million to date and will likely get a lot of play on Prime Video, when it is available there in mid-May. Apple announced that it will take a similar path to Amazon, especially for two highly-anticipated films that may make an awards run later this year. Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon will hit theaters in October and Ridley Scott’s Napoleon will premiere Thanksgiving weekend. No need to worry if you want to watch it at home – you’ll likely only have to wait a month or so. Which brings up an interesting question.
How Can I Watch That Movie?
Predicting when a movie will be available at home can be very difficult. If a film is very successful in theaters, you can count on waiting several months to see it at home. The Avatar and Top Gun sequels spent months in theaters before their home availability. If it’s a smaller film that has modest (or no) success at the box office, you can expect it to be available to rent on demand (via Amazon or iTunes) at home after a few weeks in theaters. Now, some people may balk at the home rental price (usually $20 initially, decreasing down to an amount under $10 after a month or so), but if you factor in the cost of two theater tickets, snacks, parking, and babysitting, the cost for a couple to go out for a movie can add up quickly. This is just the new economy.
After the home rental phase, a film will usually go to the streaming service aligned with its producing studio – Warner Bros. movies will go to Max (the streaming service formerly known as HBO Max), Paramount films to Paramount+, Disney to Disney+, Universal to Peacock, MGM to Amazon Prime, etc. It’s all about the corporate ownership of the studio and the streaming service. And that timeframe can take weeks to months. If a studio is trying to drive subscribers to their (relatively) new service (like Paramount+), it will be shorter. It’s definitely confusing, but when technology innovation (i.e. streaming capabilities) disrupt an industry, you can count on chaos for some period of time. When in doubt, consult JustWatch.com, IMDB, or your good friend Google.
There’s one studio where the viewing path is easy to figure out – Netflix films always go to the streamer immediately. Netflix doesn’t care about theaters. In fact, on a recent earnings call, their Chairman stated, “Driving folks to a theater is just not our business.” They want you to watch everything at home on their service. The only time they will put a movie in theaters is to qualify for awards. The Academy requires films to be released in theaters to be eligible for the Oscars. For instance, I saw Don’t Look Up and The Irishman in a theater, when they were in a small number of theaters for only a week. Netflix has always done the bare minimum to meet the Academy’s requirements. Which brings up another interesting piece of news that came out recently.
Before the advent of streaming services, it was pretty easy to figure out if a movie qualified for an Oscar or an Emmy. Played in a theater? Oscar. Played on television? Emmy. But when Netflix started getting into original programming, things got complicated. The Academy eventually settled on a rule that a film needed to play in a theater in one of six major markets for at least one week. This is why you’ll sometimes see a movie get a small release in New York and LA in late December to barely make the eligibility window, before a wide expansion in January. But as I noted above, Netflix doesn’t do more than the bare minimum. But that may change. Last month, a report indicated that the Academy may require films to play in 15 to 20 markets for a period of time before its streaming release. This could help theaters, as well as give people a chance to see smaller films that have a hard time getting to audiences. This new rule could be a game changer for Netflix, who has no interest in the theatrical model. Time will tell if this passes and the impact it will have on the industry. Ok, enough business news – let’s talk about some movies.
This Month’s Highlights
April was a busy month of new releases and I was fortunate to see a number of them. I couldn’t get to everything on my list, but there were some surprising highlights and lowlights. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves was better than I expected, and I am not a D&D player. A pretty fun action fantasy movie. There were also more horror releases this month, as this genre continues to drive audiences. Russell Crowe plays the title character in The Pope’s Exorcist, a film that has a story you’ve seen many times before, but is fun for what it is, and Crowe is having a blast chewing the scenery throughout the movie while fighting Satan.
I was kind of underwhelmed by Renfield, the horror comedy with Nicholas Cage as Dracula and Nicholas Hoult as the title character, the long-suffering assistant of the Prince of Darkness. Parts of the movie worked really well, especially the performances by the two Nicks. But, the story was kind of a muddled mess, and it was a little too gory for my taste. One last quick mention. If you liked Hereditary and Midsommar and think, “Hey, I think I’ll check out the new movie from director Ari Aster with Joaquin Phoenix,” I’d recommend you pass. Beau is Afraid has some funny moments, but is one of the strangest movies I’ve ever seen. A wild swing by a director who clearly has some talent, but a three hour opus about a man’s anxiety-fueled psychological horror journey while dealing with extreme Mommy issues was too much for me to recommend. OK, let’s move on to three movies I liked a lot.
It’s Gotta Be The Shoes – Air
When I first read the logline for this picture, I knew I was all-in. Ben Affleck and Matt Damon in a movie about Nike signing Michael Jordan. This hits a lot of my interests – two of my favorite actors, sports, and the 1980s. And boy does Air hit all the right notes. Damon stars as Sonny Vaccaro, a Nike talent scout who signs basketball players to merchandise and marketing contracts. At the time of the film’s opening, the company is a fledgling business that makes its name on running shoes, but has no presence in the basketball sneaker space, which is dominated by Converse and Adidas. Affleck plays Nike CEO Phil Knight, who is convinced by Vaccaro to take a chance by pooling all of their marketing capital into one player – Michael Jordan, recently drafted by the Chicago Bulls, but not yet the NBA Hall of Famer we would see when his career began to blossom.
On the one hand, you might think that a movie about marketing a basketball shoe isn’t very exciting, especially one where we spend most of the time watching people talk to each other in an office building or over the phone. And in lesser hands, this film could be pretty pedestrian. But with Affleck behind the camera and partnering with his lifelong friend, not to mention a deep bench of all-stars in the cast (see what I did there?), this film is a winner. Jason Bateman (as a marketing executive), Chris Messina (as Jordan’s agent David Falk) and especially Viola Davis (as Jordan’s mother) are excellent and bring depth to the story. How about the actor who plays His Airness? Well, that’s where Affleck made a smart decision – other than a plethora of archive basketball footage, we only see Jordan a few times, and we never see his face. This is less a movie about Jordan and more about Nike’s recruiting of him, and how his contract helped transform sports marketing. If Jordan was more of a featured character, I feel like it would have been a distraction.
My one minor quibble with Air is that the 80s nostalgia is a bit too much for my taste. There are many needle drops, some of which are right on top of each other, and the constant imagery of the 1980s culture seemed to lose its impact as the film moved along. As much as I love the 1980s, after a while, it felt as if I decided to eat an entire pint of ice cream at once, instead of just tasting a little bit. Also, in some respect, there isn’t a lot of suspense with where the story is going. We know Jordan is going to sign with Nike, which is why I think the cast made this movie worth watching. Without Damon, Davis and Affleck, I think this would have been an average film. Instead, Air is a great popcorn flick that is perfect for a casual movie night. Air is now playing in theaters and is expected on Amazon Prime Video sometime in May.
Ocean’s Eleven plus Environmental Activism minus The Jokes – How to Blow Up a Pipeline
Over the history of film, we have seen many instances of the “heist movie,” probably best depicted in Ocean’s Eleven. When I saw How to Blow Up a Pipeline at the Philadelphia Film Festival last year, I immediately thought that I didn’t think we could see a new twist on a heist movie that works, but here we are. After the screening, the film’s star and co-writer (Ariela Barer) and editor both spoke at a Q&A where they discussed some of their influences in creating the movie. Not surprising, Ocean’s Eleven was one that they referenced. But unlike that film, there are no jokes in How to Blow Up a Pipeline. It’s an intense ride, featuring a propulsive score that underlines the tension of the story.
As the film opens, we meet a group of individuals who have come together to bomb an oil pipeline in Texas to send a message about the dangers of ignoring climate change on our planet. Some of the members of this group had relationships before their plot came together and some of them met up specifically for this mission. Director Daniel Goldhaber does a great job of moving back and forth between the current timeline (set during the plot to deploy the bombs) and older time periods when we see how the characters connected before the mission and (more importantly) their motivations for this destructive plot. I liked how they told those backstories, because it left some interpretation to the audience of what exactly their motivations were – there were some explicit comments, but some implicit ones as well. And the film is edited together in a masterful way, featuring a few twists that unfold toward the end of the movie.
Say what you will about the morality of this picture’s message, and I certainly don’t condone violence, but I was able to suspend my feelings about the characters’ mission to enjoy a suspenseful heist movie. I remember the day after I saw the film in Philadelphia, I was talking to an older person outside a theater for a different screening. When I asked him if he saw the film and liked it, he shook his head and said, “Fuck those millennials.” Yeah, so this one may not be for everyone. One last note about the film – this is an independent movie, meaning there aren’t any fancy costumes, beautiful locations, famous actors, or computer generated effects in this picture. It’s got a “real-life” look to the story, which makes it more compelling to me, and it’s one of my favorite movies of 2023 so far. How to Blow Up a Pipeline is now playing in limited theaters and will be available to rent on demand in early May.
A Wonderful Family Story – Somewhere in Queens
Everyone has their favorite comfort television show to put on in the background while you are reading or preparing dinner. Maybe it’s The Office, Parks and Recreation, or Seinfeld, which is one of our personal favorites. Can you believe next month will be the 25th anniversary of the last episode? Doesn’t matter to us – that show never gets old. Another show high on our list is Everybody Loves Raymond, starring Ray Romano, the stand-up comedian who co-created the sitcom partially based on his personal life. The show is hysterical and sometimes hits a little too close to home in its realistic portrayal of the joys and…ahem, challenges, of marriage. I mostly connect with the scenes where Ray is an absolute idiot. Anyway, the show is a riot, primarily due to genius writing and a main cast with no weak links, two traits it has in common with Succession. Just another reminder to watch the best show on television as it heads toward the finish line next month.
After Raymond ended, Romano dabbled in different kinds of roles and I’ve admired his approach to getting away from “sitcom dad.” Over the years, he was very effective in dramatic roles on the television show Parenthood, the movie The Big Sick, and a brief role in The Irishman. This year sees him make his debut as a feature film director with Somewhere in Queens, which he also co-wrote and stars as Leo, the father of a promising high-school basketball player. Leo and his wife (Laurie Metcalf, in a very strong performance) live in Queens and he works for his father’s construction company. Their son, Matthew (nicknamed “Sticks” for his long legs), is quiet and introverted, but excels on the basketball court. Leo wants Sticks to try for a basketball scholarship to give him a chance to escape being stuck in the family business after graduation. Sticks has a new girlfriend and doesn’t seem to have much interest in anything else.
Somewhere in Queens is a nice comedy-drama about a family going through life’s typical challenges. In other words, the story is not breaking any new ground and is a little predictable, but that doesn’t take away from its charm. I was particularly impressed with Romano and Metcalf as the parents, as well as relative newcomers Jacob Ward as Sticks and Sadie Stanley as his girlfriend. And Romano did a wonderful job casting all of the members of his Italian-American family. If you’re looking for a nice family story with a lot of heart and you like Romano, look no further than Somewhere in Queens, playing in limited theaters now and available to rent on demand in early June.
Coming Attractions
After a whirlwind of new releases in April, it will be a little quieter in May. Studios seem to clear out and let the big tentpole movies kick off the summer season and not release smaller movies that could disappear quickly. There are three big titles coming next month – the aforementioned Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, the live-action remake of The Little Mermaid, and the tenth entry in the ridiculous (but fun) action series, Fast and the Furious, titled simply Fast X. I will only be seeing the last of those three. Yes, it will probably be stupid, but if you go in with the right attitude (i.e. laughing as Vin Diesel drives a car out of a flying helicopter onto a highway), then it can be a good popcorn movie experience.
Here are a few other smaller films I have on my list for next month. If you are a technology geek and remember the early glory days of handheld devices, you might be interested in Blackberry, the story of the rise and fall of the company that seemed to have it all, only to go down in flames. Blackberry will probably have a limited theatrical run, so look for it on demand in late May. Julia Louis-Dreyfus (maybe the greatest comedic actor of all time?) stars in You Hurt My Feelings as an author who discovers that her long-time husband never liked her work. Things go downward quickly in this dark comedy from writer-director Nicole Holofcenter, who co-wrote The Last Duel, and directed the wonderful Enough Said, which co-starred Louis-Dreyfus and James Gandolfini. This film premiered to strong reviews at Sundance earlier this year and will premiere in theaters on May 26th. The last recommendation is a documentary that also received strong feedback following its debut at Sundance. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie tells the story of the actor, his rapid rise to success, his struggles with Parkinson’s disease, and advocacy to find a cure for the disease. Fox is one of my all-time favorites, so this film is high on my watch list for next month. Still premieres on Apple TV+ on May 12th.
As much as I love movies, my big anticipation for May has nothing to do with them – it’s my other love. The end of May will see me enjoying two very different concert experiences with my children. My daughter and I will see Taylor Swift in Foxborough and four days later, my son and I will be seeing Foo Fighters in New Hampshire. Thank goodness live music is back in our lives in full force, because there is no feeling in the world like being surrounded by thousands of fans singing along to a classic song. More on those experiences next month.
One Last Thing
When I revamped this blog, I decided I would focus on the movie and television industry each month, with the occasional personal story sprinkled into the piece. Hence, the breakdown of my experience seeing Bruce Springsteen last month and the inevitable “too many to count” words about seeing Taylor Swift in a few weeks that you may have to suffer through (or skip, if you are so inclined) next month. This month, however, is not a happy story – instead, it’s the story of an incredibly sad few days that I debated whether or not I wanted to write about. I decided to dive in, in the pursuit of a cathartic relief that writing sometimes gives me.
About two weeks ago, my wife and I came home from the driving range to find that our beloved dog Sadie had an accident on the carpet, something she never does. Over the course of the afternoon, she clearly wasn’t herself, moving more slowly and looking very lethargic. When she had no desire for dinner (she routinely jumps in the air and spins in circles when you ask her if she wants dinner), we started to worry. Late that night we decided to bring her into the veterinary hospital where we were informed that she had fluid around her heart and in her abdomen. They were able to drain the fluid and would perform some scans to see if there was anything there. The next afternoon we got the bad news that they found a mass at the base of her heart and we came to the realization that we were going to have to say goodbye to our beloved pup. The doctors couldn’t stop the fluid, so we needed to make our decisions quickly. We went down to the vet, spent some quiet moments with her, shed a lot of tears and said our goodbyes. It was one of the more painful days of my life.
When you adopt a dog, you recognize that this one day will eventually happen. It’s the cruelest part of owning a pet. You give so much love and attention to them over the years, and they return it in an unconditional way that is hard to describe unless you are a pet owner. We all grow to understand death, but who knows that they really understand? As we laid next to her, we could tell she was in pain, but you never really know what your dog is thinking. Well, sometimes you do. Like when the look on their face says, “Dad, can I have a chip?”
Unfortunately, this was not our first experience with having to say goodbye to a dog. Several years back, our older dog Barley passed away after a long decline in his health. While that time was difficult for us, we had time to come to terms with the ultimate outcome, as we saw him deteriorate and we knew he was getting older. It was only a matter of time. Also, we had Sadie to keep us company after he passed away. On the contrary, Sadie had just turned 11 and had the energy of a puppy almost all of the time. I kind of expected we had at least a few years left. I kept telling myself, “I’ll worry when she’s 13.” The fact that this whole episode unfolded in just over 24 hours completely floored us.
The last two weeks haven’t been easy, but it’s getting a little better each day. I still do a double take at least a few times every day, expecting her to be around the corner, greeting us at the door, or sleeping on our bed. It’s funny because she was such a quiet pup (she rarely barked), yet the house feels strangely quiet without her here. It must be the missing pitter patter of four feet walking into the room to greet you with a wagging tail, looking for some petting. And it does make me sad, thinking that we could have had more time with her, but we were fortunate to have so many wonderful memories over the years. She was a loving pup who brought us so much joy, and we know that she is now having fun playing with Barley forever more.
That’s all for this month’s report. Thanks for indulging me with some cathartic writing. I’ll be back next month with more highlights from the movie world. Thanks for reading and if you’d like to be notified of future posts, you can subscribe below.